Parties across the state are scanning polling booth to assess seats retain, and the one prised away
JD(S) national president H.D. Deve Gowda arrives for a press conference at the party office in Bengaluru on Tuesday (Photo: KPN)
Bengaluru: A day after Karnataka's 4.62 crore electorate exercised its franchise, political parties across the state are putting every polling booth under the scanner to assess which seats they have been able to retain, and which they have prised away from their opponents.
The phenomenal rise in the number of young people who voted on Thursday six lakh new voters could prove a huge boost to the BJP’s prospects, while the infighting within the Congress party could affect results in more than a dozen seats including Gulbarga where stalwarts like Mallikarjun Kharge and newbies like Ramya in Mandya could pay the price. This could be offset to some extent for the Congress, by the higher than usual turnout of minorities and backwards, particularly the Kurubas, who form the third largest community after the Lingayats and the Vokkaligas, and have backed Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, who is also a Kuruba.
The Congress' vote share in this 2014 parliamentary poll, based on the last assembly elections is set at 34%, reflected in its modest share of 9 MPs and by virtue of winning three by elections before and after a Congress government took power in the assembly polls of 2013, when it scalped one BJP held seat, and two held by the JD(S). The BJP, post its merger with B.S. Yeddyurappa’s breakaway KJP (Karnataka Janata Paksha) and Sreeramulu's BSR Congress was looking at a comfortable 20%+10%+6%= 36% vote share, and was sitting pretty with 19 MPs.
While informal prepoll analyses placed the BJP with 10 seats, the Congress with 15 and the JD(S) with three, all three parties as well as state intelligence are not discounting the impact of the anti incumbency of UPA 2 and the so called Narendra Modi wave in favour of the BJP's prime ministerial candidate among first time voters. This could turn the tables on the Congress which was hoping to make it to double digits and win, they privately admit, at least 12 seats, and not the 20 that the chief minister publicly claims it will.
The Congress, hit by the apathy of its traditional slumdweller vote, is banking on winning Uttara Kannada, Raichur, Chitradurga as well as Bangalore Central, conceding that winning the prestigious seat of Bangalore South from under the nose of five time stalwart Ananth Kumar will be tough for even someone as well respected as Nandan Nilekani. The BJP, in turn believes that it could either hit a nadir of 12 seats or a high of 19, if greenhorn Pratap Simha wins Mysore and it retains Davangere, if the JD(S)’ Mahima Patel splits the Congress' Malikarjun's vote.
The saffronists are said to be concerned over losing Bellary and Uttara Kannada where Anant Kumar Hegde is facing the Congress' Prashant Deshpande, and Raichur where Shivannagouda Naik is shaky, as well as Chitradurga where Janardhan Swamy is a weak link.The JD(S) is confident that its Hassan stronghold will stay with it, and is hoping to win Chikkaballapur from Congress stalwart Veerappa Moily, as well as regain its Old Mysore stronghold of Mandya.
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