Hyderabad: The Indian Meteorological Department’s preliminary estimates of a below normal south-west monsoon has put both Telangana and Andhra Pradesh in a fix. The long-range forecast has indicated less than normal rainfall, which means more than 25 per cent chance of a drought. This will have severe implications on agricultural output, prices of essential commodities and water sharing.
Predicted to hit Kerala on June 1, the south-west monsoon will progress towards the Rayalaseema region by the night of June 2, the day declared for the formation of the new state of Telangana. The rainfall this year will decide how water will be proportioned in the two states.
K. Seetharam, a scientist with the IMD, said that the below normal rainfall that has been predicted is due to the El Nino effect, a warming of sea surface temperatures over equatorial South Pacific that upsets weather trends across the globe.
“As per different models of predictions, Telangana will receive 75 cm, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, 58 cm and Rayalaseema about 40 cm. Most of the Indian economy depends on the south-west monsoon and farmers are the most affected,” Mr Seetharam said.
S.S.V.S. Ramakrishna, professor at the Meteorological Department and chairman at Andhra University, predicts that, overall, the margin of error in the long period average rainfall predicted will be minus two to minus 10.
“North to north coastal Andhra and some parts of Telangana and Rayalaseema will have a deficit. Sharing water could be a problem in coming years. The main problem is not deficit, but erratic rains. Rainfall will not occur at places that need it the most. According to preliminary predictions, we will have a long break and then a heavy downfall for a week. Global warming is creating a disturbance in the monsoon cycle. We see the early onset of the monsoon that then extends into October, when it used to end by September,” the professor said.
