Who is going to finish second in the parliamentary election in Varanasi? This question may be of only academic interest, as the victory of Narendra Modi from the constituency is more or less certain.
However, for political watchers and those familiar with the electoral calculations of Varanasi, the question is nevertheless a subject of fascination. Ajay Rai of the Congress and Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party are both contesting against Mr Modi and are equally keen to avoid a humiliating third-place finish. After all, there is some political mileage to be gained in coming second to a prime ministerial candidate.
As things stand, it is Mr Kejriwal who is running the more visible and media-friendly campaign, and it is the AAP team that is meeting the scores of national and international journalists who are descending upon the town of Varanasi. However, it is Mr Rai who appears to be better positioned in terms of caste and social coalitions.
Unless these ground realities change — and theoretically they could — the Congress and Mr Rai should finish a comfortable runner-up and the AAP leader should be relegated to third place.
What is Mr Rai banking on? Of Varanasi’s 1.6 million voters, some 100,000 are Bhumihar, the community Mr Rai comes from. He is undisputedly the best-known political face among Bhumihars and can usually count on this base, irrespective of which party he is in.
In addition, Mukhtar Ansari, an eastern Uttar Pradesh strongman who dabbles in politics, has announced his support for the Congress. This is expected to have a decisive influence on the 300,000 Muslim voters in the constituency.
Bhumihars and Muslims are traditionally seen as “aggressive” communities in the Varanasi belt. They have a long history, and both Mr Ansari and Mr Rai have been accused of crimes and of running rival syndicates. Mr Rai has resisted repeated efforts by Mr Ansari to push his way into the Varanasi territory. In 2009, on polling day, Mr Rai is widely believed to have transferred some of his vote to the BJP to prevent Mr Ansari, then the Bahujan Samaj Party candidate, from winning.
Protecting his “business” was deemed more important than ensuring the Bharatiya Janata Party’s defeat. Given this, if a Muslim-Bhumihar or more so a Rai-Ansari alliance takes place in Varanasi in 2014, it will represent a shift in local political dynamics. Despite the compact between Mr Ansari and the Congress, the Muslim-Bhumihar equation on the ground remains testy.
Before Mr Rai, the big Bhumihar leader in Varanasi was Krishnanand Rai of the BJP. A cousin of Ajay Rai’s, Krishnanand Rai was murdered in 2005. Mr Ansari is the principal accused in that murder case, and is in prison in that connection. As such, when Krishnanand Rai’s widow addressed a media conference on a BJP platform in Varanasi this past week and virtually accused Mr Ajay Rai of betraying her husband’s memory, it did leave the Congress candidate a little uncomfortable.
Later Mr Rai denied he had sought or even needed Mr Ansari’s help. He insisted any deal the Congress leadership in Delhi had worked out with Mr Ansari was unacceptable to him. Obviously, he was worried about a backlash among Bhumihars, an objective the BJP is striving for.
Another factor troubling Mr Rai is a number of junior Congress functionaries from Varanasi city and its outskirts have seen the writing on the wall and joined the BJP in recent days.
Individually these people may control only small pockets of votes, but for the Congress and for Mr Rai, they amount to an unnecessary attrition.
Mr Kejriwal’s campaign is driven largely by AAP volunteers from Delhi and Haryana. Little groups, wearing the recognisable AAP cap, are evident in the mornings and the evenings, on the ghats and in the neighbourhoods of Varanasi, reaching out to residents when it is most convenient for them.
The AAP has released a pamphlet that focuses on local, almost municipal-level issues, and distributes and discusses this incessantly. Its attempt is to pitch itself as a voice for the common citizen.
In a normal election, if for instance the BJP’s Murli Manohar Joshi had sought a second term, the anti-incumbency against the sitting MP would have given the AAP not just listeners but also voters. In an election where the mood in Varanasi seems to be that it is electing not an MP but a Prime Minister, the AAP has a tougher challenge in controlling the narrative.
That aside, the absence of a minimum base — such as the Bhumihar backing Mr Rai is counting on — exposes the fundamental weakness of AAP as it moves further and further away from Delhi: how does it take on entrenched regional politicians and caste chieftains?
To some degree, the AAP too is flirting with the caste game. For instance, it is reaching out to the tiny but resource-rich Marwari community in Varanasi and emphasising
Mr Kejriwal’s own caste background. There is even some subliminal messaging about how Marwaris should not vote for a Gujarati, but most people — including AAP workers themselves — realise this is not going to get too far. The hope is Mr Kejriwal will get some votes and, more to the point, campaign funds.
To stay relevant and give Mr Modi a meaningful fight, Mr Kejriwal has to win a majority of the Muslim votes. There is no real alternative to that formula, never mind the adulatory profiles and extensive interviews in the national and international media. In the week of campaigning that remains, he is bound to make at least one more blockbuster attempt for the Muslim vote — and fashion himself as the champion of the minority community.
This is the only possible way in which he can outsmart and defeat Mr Rai. Of course, it is useful to remind oneself that all these permutations and combinations, and these fervent efforts, are being made to finish second.
In Varanasi, they are not discussing Mr Modi winning; they are only speculating on whether his margin of victory can break existing records.
The writer can be contacted at malikashok@gmail.com
