BJP's gamble may not pay off

A large section of the media, the corporate sector and sympathisers of the Bharatiya Janata Party are gung-ho about the prospects of Narendra Modi becoming the next Prime Minister of India. For these supporters of the Hindu nationalist party, the ascendancy of Mr Modi is now fait accompli. However, not all in the saffron party are equally sanguine about the chances of the chief minister of Gujarat getting to hold the country’s top job. They acknowledge that the BJP has taken a huge gamble by projecting Mr Modi as bigger than the party, a gamble which may not pay off.

These insiders argue that just as the “India Shining” campaign backfired on the party in 2004, the unprecedented publicity given to promote Mr Modi’s candidature could fail to achieve the results expected by many in the BJP and its ideological parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. This section within the party — often derogatorily described as members of the “160 Club” to denote the number of seats the BJP could get in the ongoing general elections — concede that their pessimism is not shared by many. But they sincerely believe they are being realistic and that their position will be vindicated when the outcome of the elections is known Friday after next.

Speak to them in private and these BJP functionaries will tell you that they will not be surprised if the BJP fails to exceed the peak levels of popularity the party touched in 1998 and 1999, even if the number of members of Parliament belonging to the BJP in the next Lok Sabha exceeds the 160 mark. In the elections held in both 1998 and 1999, the BJP won 182 seats in the lower house of Parliament, obtaining 25.59 per cent and 23.75 per cent of the total votes polled respectively.

Those who believe that the BJP’s number in the Lok Sabha could exceed 200 argue that the party would win not less than 70 seats from Uttar Pradesh (where the party has only 10 MPs at present) and Bihar (where the BJP has 12 seats) put together. This may not happen. In large parts of western and central Uttar Pradesh as well as in the Bundelkhand region, the electoral battle is between the BJP and the Bahujan Samaj Party led by Mayawati. In these areas, a dalit-Muslim consolidation of votes could prove formidable.

In other parts of the country’s most-populous state, especially in Poorvanchal or the eastern region, the principal political contenders are the BJP and the Samjawadi Party. While anti-incumbency and the fallout of the Muzaffarnagar communal clashes have certainly weakened the party led by Mulayam Singh Yadav, it would be foolish to write off the SP’s prospects as some opinion polls have.

The same opinion polls appear to have under-estimated the expected gains that could be made by the Rashtriya Janata Dal led by Lalu Prasad Yadav and its alliance partner, the Congress, in Bihar. It may be recalled that the RJD won only four out of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state in the 2009 elections, while the Congress won two. Even ardent supporters of the Janata Dal (United) led by chief minister Nitish Kumar, which is opposed to the RJD and the Congress, acknowledge that the RJD-Congress could bounce back with half or close to half the seats in Bihar. If indeed this happens, the “children of the Ganga” could thwart Mr Modi’s prime ministerial ambitions.

The other state where the performance of the Congress is perhaps being under-estimated by the opinion polls is Karnataka, where the party won only six out of 28 seats in 2009 with the BJP winning 19. Over the past five years, the political scenario in Karnataka has undergone a sea change and despite former chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa returning to the folds of the BJP with Mr Modi’s blessings, the party’s tarnished image hasn’t exactly been refurbished even if local issues are relatively less important in these elections.

Mr Modi’s gung-ho supporters believe the party will not just perform spectacularly in its traditional bastions of Rajasthan (where it had only four out 25 seats in 2009), Gujarat (15 out of 26) and Madhya Pradesh (16 out of 29), it would significantly improve its tally in Maharashtra where the BJP won only nine out of the 48 Lok Sabha seats five years ago with its partner, the Shiv Sena, winning 11 seats. In addition, the party hopes to pick up a few seats in states where it has been traditionally weak, such as Andhra Pradesh (where it is in partnership with the Telugu Desam Party), Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Once again, this may not happen.

What could worsen the situation for the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance coalition is that in Punjab, there seems to be strong anti-incumbency sentiments currently prevailing against the Shiromani Akali Dal which is accused by its political opponents of running the agriculturally-prosperous state as if it is the personal fiefdom of the Badal family.

In 2009, the SAD won only four out of the 13 seats in the state with the BJP winning one, the rest going to the Congress. Besides Punjab, the Congress could increase its tally by a seat or two in Chhattisgarh where the government led by Raman Singh was able to return to power in December by a thin majority — the BJP won 10 out of the 11 seats in the state five years ago.

A large section within the BJP believes there is a “wave” in favour of Mr Modi. Buttressed by support from the corporate sector, the party is publicly exuding confidence about its prospects. In off-the-record conversations, however, some BJP functionaries argue that Mr Modi should not have antagonised to the extent he has, two powerful women chief ministers, Mamata Banerjee and J. Jayalalithaa, both of whom could play decisive roles in government formation if the BJP and the NDA fall short of the halfway mark of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha.

There are many opposed to Mr Modi, who believe he should nevertheless be given a chance to run the country. After he fails to provide a decisive, corruption-free government as he claims he will, he would then be thoroughly discredited, the argument runs. Those who argue along such lines also believe that a rag-tag, opportunistic non-BJP, non-Congress coalition (supported by the Congress from outside) would not be able to run a government for too long and that this instability would pave the way for Mr Modi to re-emerge as an even stronger and more authoritarian ruler, reviving memories of 1996 and 1997.

But history does not always repeat itself. New lessons are learnt and new paradigms evolve. The outcome of the elections will be known on May 16. Meanwhile, on a personal note, it should be mentioned that this writer is supposed to belong to the “anti-Modi mafia in the media”, according to eminent academic, author and journalist Madhu Kishwar.

The writer is an educator and commentator