Hyderabad: The YSR Congress’ failure to convince Seemandhra voters that the party had the ability to develop the residuary state and capital, poor poll management as a result of an overconfident top leadership, and the reluctance to announce farm loan waiver led to the defeat of the YSR Congress in the Seemnadhra region.
The TD’s development plank for Seemandhra was the key factor that brought the party back to power after 10 years. Throughout his campaign Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy harped on new welfare schemes his party would introduce and played up the schemes introduced by his father and former Chief Minister Rajasekhara Reddy. That went down well with poorer, rural sections of the electorate. but it failed to address the fears of the urban middle class that feels financially insecure and worried about job losses after Telangana was spun off as a separate state
Even in rural communities, a large section of farmers shifted loyalty to the TD expecting that their farm loans will be waived, as TD supremo Mr Chandrababu Naidu has promised. Mr Jagan Mohan has openly said that waiving farm loans as well as job for every household scheme mooted by Mr Naidu were impractical.
As Member of the Legislative Council and political analyst professor K. Nageswar put it, “Naidu’s development image eclipsed Jagan’s welfare image. As the Congress has been totally decimated, this led to political polarisation between the YSRC and TD. The anti-Jagan forces rallied to the TD and that benefitted it.”
The bifurcation has actually has benefited the TD, Prof Nageswar pointed out. “People of Seemandhra felt helpless. Mr Naidu was seen as having more experience in governance,” he said.
The role of Naidu in the last days of bifurcation - when it appeared that he had tried to stop bifurcation - also helped him. The Modi effect is there across the country and that too helped Naidu in a very big way."
The consolidation of upper caste votes, especially Kapus, behind the TD, particularly in Vishakapatnam, East Godavari and West Godavari districts, has virtually wiped out the YSRC in this region. The biggest and most humiliating defeat for the YSRC has come in Vishakapatnam, from where Ms Vijayamma, Mr Jaganmohan Reddy's mother, lost the parliamentary seat.
Though the YSRC had given 40 Assembly and six Parliamentary tickets to Kapus, the community stood behind Mr Naidu in both local polls and general elections. Interestingly, most of the YSRC's Kapu candidates lost. The majority of upper caste groups, except Reddys, voted for the Telugu Desam while Dalits and a section of Minorities stood behind the YSRC.
The BCs were divided. The Brahmins, Vysyas, Khastriyas (Rajus) also stood behind the Telugu Desam. The Kamma vote went totally to the Telugu Desam whereas the Reddy vote was divided in Anantapur district. The YSRC did well in the Reddy belt of Kadapa, Nellore, Kurnool, and Chittoor. It put up a strong fight in the Kamma belt of Guntur and Prakasham, but in two other districts of the Kamma belt - Krishna and West Godavari - the YSRC got a drubbing. In East Godavari and Vishakapatnam too it was trounced by the TD, but gave a decent fight in Srikakulam and Vizainagaram districts.
Sympathy for Mr Jaganmohan had reduced drastically since he was jailed on corruption charges. The Muslim vote did not back the YSRC. Rural Muslims, traditionally with the TD, continued to support it.
Organisationally, the YSRC Congress failed. It had a poor feedback mechanism, compared to the 'pyramid structure' that was worked out by Mr Naidu and allowed him to monitor his campaign at every level. The YSRC chief depended on surveys done by outside agencies which seem to have got the pulse of the voter wrong.
