Last summer political pundits started examining various possible contours of the just-concluded polls. At that point, the idea of a single party securing a majority on its own was beyond imagination. India and Indians had become completely attuned to the coalition era and the spectre of the single largest party falling almost a hundred seats short of the halfway mark was no longer seen as a nightmare. By that time, the possibility of Narendra Modi being nominated as the party’s prime ministerial candidate had become distinctly imminent.
There was an assessment among most non-partisan observers that Bharatiya Janata Party’s chances would be brightest if fought under
Mr Modi’s leadership. But, opinion differed on the extent of the extra votes or seats he would get for the party. It was contended that for Mr Modi to significantly increase the BJP tally it was important for him to push the election — in those states that were BJP’s areas of strength, in the direction of a “single-issue” poll. The viewpoint was that since 1996 all elections had been an aggregate of several elections. This trend was manifest in the absence of a unifying motive propelling voters and the presence of several local level issues.
Last year it was felt that for Mr Modi to notch a significantly higher tally than any party’s performance in the past two decades, it was imperative for him to increase his centrality in the elections. As the verdict demonstrated, this poll was virtually a referendum on Mr Modi and the clear majority for the BJP indicated that he had successfully emerged as the fulcrum of the 2014 polls. But, does this poll show that BJP has replaced in the Congress as the largest political pole in the political system that existed prior to 1984 when the Congress stood at one end while other parties were cloistered on the other end. The main electoral impact of this system, termed “Congress system” by political scientists after the term was coined by Rajni Kothari, was that the Congress benefited when anti-Congress parties split votes and the Grand Old Party stood to lose whenever there were alliances or seat adjustments between the Congress and others.
It would be easy to rush to argue that the two-party principle has returned in India and the BJP has replaced the Congress as a single largest political pole. Inversely, it would be easy to conclude that the Congress has run its course and will continue its tailspin till its complete annihilation over subsequent polls.
But would this conclusion be a correct one? Can one argue definitively if India has seen the end of the coalition era and return of a political system in which one party is dominant while the others are minor players?
Before exploring these questions, it is prudent to examine the likely political landscape over the next few years and assess if the emergence of the BJP is a permanent feature or essentially a transitory development due to Mr Modi’s charismatic appeal.
Assembly elections are due in several states and the BJP — alone or with an electoral ally — is expected to win in the majority. Even where polls are constitutionally not due this year or by the middle of 2015, incumbent anti-BJP governments are likely to not last. By the time the present Lok Sabha completes its tenure and the next polls are held as scheduled or earlier if Mr Modi opts for mid-term polls after dramatic political developments, the BJP has strong chances of being in power in most states. It appears that before the next polls, unless there are dramatic reverses — the BJP would have wrested control of Bihar, Assam, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Maharashtra, Haryana and even Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka. These states, coupled with those where the BJP is already in power, will make a massive chunk of India and will further propel India towards a bipolar political system.
Sangh Parivar, the fleet of organisations owing allegiance to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, used to be a body with a unitary command structure. Its authority was progressively undermined from the Vajpayee years and by the time Mr Modi emerged on the scene it was reduced to a saffron coalition, disparate and at loggerheads with each other like political coalitions in electoral politics.
With this election, the multi-polar character of the Sangh Parivar has also undergone a change with Mr Modi becoming the most powerful force in the fraternity. It has left the others with no choice but to close ranks and make common cause.
Opposition to Mr Modi cannot be direct at this stage given the nature of the mandate but old bonds are being revived in the hope that over time the RSS can play a more decisive role than advocacy in a Modi regime.
But these developments mark a fundamental departure in the political discourse within the Sangh Parivar. Despite the iron hand of its sarsanghchalak, the RSS has not witnessed the levels of personality cult that has been the hallmark of the Modi era. The RSS has traversed nine decades not by putting a messianic personality on the pedestal but by embedding a political philosophy in the organisation. Messianic characters look primarily at their tenures but ideology-based organisations have a longer goal and individuals carve out their spaces by becoming advocates of this idea. In the case of Mr Modi, propagation of this idea is incidental while acquisition and retaining political power is integral.
The emergence of BJP as the dominant party in Lok Sabha will force political realignment in Opposition ranks. In northern India there is a possibility of various Janata factions exploring ways to do business jointly. Realignment and recasting the Opposition space may be the dominant preoccupation of those not in the Treasury benches, but Mr Modi’s aim has already been stated — his 10-year agenda.
Past instances when a party had a comprehensive majority in Parliament is no indicator of good governance. Both Indira Gandhi and her son, Rajiv, frittered their substantial majorities in less than two years of being in government.
In contrast, despite a wafer thin majority, the Vajpayee government tided over several serious domestic and international crises for five years between 1999 and 2004.
India has made a shift from the coalition era to a two-party system and this is likely to continue for some years. Return to a coalition era appears possible in the near future only in the event of Mr Modi failing to put his act together. Otherwise, it looks as if India is due to live this phase till the forces of nature take over.
The writer is the author of Narendra Modi: The Man, the Times
