Since May 16 it has been stated ad nauseam that the verdict in 2014 is the first time in 30 years that a single party has been handed a clear majority. It has not been pointed out equally emphatically that the Opposition in 1984 had also been similarly decimated. The absence of such comment underscores establishment-driven understanding of how democracies should function. For this, just as stable government are important, vibrant Opposition is also essential to ensure that checks and balances are maintained in the system. The obsession with the winning horse demonstrates cultural preference for winners and does not benefit society in the long run. This is unfortunate as, at most points, numerically the also-rans had greater support than those victorious in the first-past-the-post system — neither the best representative system nor the worst.
During the wave created posthumously by Indira Gandhi, the Telugu Desam Party and the Left parties managed to ward off the Congress onslaught. The TDP won 30 seats and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) secured 22 Lok Sabha seats. Other Left Front constituents won another 14, making it the largest Opposition block. In 1984, officially recognised national parties won 451of the 514 seats – Punjab and Assam did not go to the polls with the rest of the country. The Congress Party polled 49 per cent of the popular vote, whereas in 2014 the BJP has polled 31 per cent on its own and slightly more than 37 per cent together with its allies.
In the first few months of its tenure, Rajiv Gandhi and his government could do no wrong despite having come to power on the wind of a divisive campaign in which barbed wires and turbaned men were projected as moving very close to the homes of voters. Rajiv Gandhi sought votes by promising that he would not allow borders of the country to move into the backyards of people. Quite similarly, Mr Modi has come to power on the back of his promise — Main desh nahee mitne doonga. Rajiv Gandhi promised change in style of governance and this was reflected in the rise of Babalog culture among the power elite in the country. It did not take two years for Rajiv Gandhi’s mandate to get eroded. In the middle of 1987 — just 30 months after winning 404 Lok Sabha seats — his government went into a tailspin.
Caution must come in early in every government. It is important for Mr Modi to remember that Jawaharlal Nehru — the man whose political paradigm he seeks to extinguish from the nation’s polity — was the only one besides Manmohan Singh to come back to power. Nehru’s victories in 1957 and 1962 remained at par with the tally in the first general election in 1951-52 — comfortably higher than 350 of the 490 odd seats that existed at that time.
Indira Gandhi won a resounding victory in 1971 when she secured almost 44 per cent of the popular vote and 352 seats. In less than three years she lost her mandate morally and, barely into her fourth year, imposed Emergency to restrict fundamental rights. Nehru often functioned brusquely, but he did so with finesse. And despite overruling colleagues on several occasions, he successfully projected his image as an amiable leader.
Mr Modi unfortunately, like Rajiv Gandhi, is in the Indira Gandhi mould. It would therefore be prudent on Mr Modi’s part to revisit reasons behind the Congress debacle in 1977 and 1989. In 1971, Indira Gandhi ordered the first ever mid-term election in India, secured a two-third majority and in barely a few months was being referred to as Durga by the Opposition.
Despite this, her woes began in 1973 when public mood turned against her for failure to control prices and rising unemployment. The Navnir-man Movement began in Gujarat in early 1974, soon spread to other parts of India — especially Bihar. In the summer of 1974, the crippling three-week-long railway strike further eroded the credibility of the government and the final straw came in the summer of 1975 when the Allahabad high court judgement unseated her from Parliament by pronouncing her guilty of electoral malpractice. The rest of her political career was spent in recovery mode. As India marks 30 years of Operation Bluestar, it would be pertinent to recall that while 1971 was Indira Gandhi’s crowning glory, the rest was a downward slide, with 1984 being the lowest point.
Similarly, Rajiv Gandhi began on a positive note by sewing up one accord after another — all in troubled areas. However, his problems began mounting with wrong political choices, beginning with the much touted compromise with communalists — first with Muslim fundamentalist groups by agreeing to legislatively nullify the Shah Bano verdict. Subsequently, he appeased Hindu groups by securing the unlocking of the disputed shrine in Ayodhya. The Fairfax controversy in December 1986 and Bofors controversy in April 1987 dealt blows from which he never recovered, and much before the polls in November 1989, it was evident that the Congress was on its way out.
Mr Modi is a promise just as Indira and Rajiv Gandhi once were. Both were overconfident at their victories and considered the challenge to them over. In their over enthusiasm both abhorred criticism of any sort and muzzled the media. A short period of adulation is on expected lines but the present regime must factor in the extent to which their electoral campaign fuelled impatience and converted this into support for team Modi. One of the key lines that Mr Modi repeated during his campaign was that people had given Congress 60 years and he wanted 60 months to change their lives. But he must remember that the people who voted for him are an impatient lot and will want to see results within 60 days. That there is no Opposition worth its name now should not lull the regime into complacency. After all, the toppling of Indira Gandhi was begun by nameless students who found a leader in a saintly Jayaprakash Narayan.
Similarly, Rajiv Gandhi’s regime got torpedoed by a partyman who left and took charge of the Opposition. Besides delivering on promises, if Mr Modi seeks a long innings, he has to ensure that pride does not get the better of him.
The writer is the author of Narendra Modi: The Man, the Times
