The assumption of office of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as Egypt’s President raises more questions than it answers. Are we going back to the old days of Hosni Mubarak and his long line of military rulers? Was the brief but intense period of popular unrest leading first to the election of Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood and then his Army-assisted fall a flash in the pan? Where will the new pharaoh take his country?
First a few verities about Egypt. It is the Arab world’s most populous nation and has traditionally been its lodestar. After the dethronement of King Farouk, it inaugurated an era of Army rule and galvanised the Arab world for a time with Gamal Abdel Nasser and a phase of Arab romanticism.
The romanticism ended in disillusionment. Egypt then made a deal with Israel after the disastrous Arab-Israeli war in exchange for the Israeli-occupied Sinai Peninsula and an annual American subvention in reward for its peace treaty with Israel. Egypt was in the Arab dog house for making peace with Israel foreclosing the option of future wars, but was ultimately rehabilitated.
The spirit of the Arab Spring, wafting from the relatively small Tunisia, led to massive protests against Mr Mubarak, ensconced in power for three decades, seemingly set to pass on power to his son Gamal. The Army, his power base, was unsympathetic to the projected hereditary transfer of power and decided to side with the protesters. Then followed an extraordinary event: the first free election in the country’s hoary history and the election of Mr Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood to the presidency.
During the year he was in office, he chose not to disturb the Army’s traditional hold on power by appointing the then Army chief, Gen. Sisi, as his defence minister. Otherwise, Mr Morsi proved incompetent and was more interested in entrenching the Brotherhood in power by framing a skewed Constitution and giving himself virtual dictatorial powers.
The Brotherhood, founded in 1928, is the country’s best organised non-military force. It has a history of an adversarial relationship with the Mubarak regime — periodically repressed and tolerated. What is not in doubt is the Brotherhood’s extensive network that feeds, cares for and has been the benefactor of Egypt’s poor in a country with few state-aided welfare facilities.
Perhaps Mr Morsi was not the real master of the Brotherhood; he was in fact the organisation’s second choice. But the demonstrators that brought Mr Morsi to power were growing increasingly disillusioned with his rule. In any event, the liberal constituency was no fan of the Brotherhood. The only opponent of the Brotherhood in the election was an establishment figure.
Even as the Army establishment had decided to side with the anti-Mubarak protesters in the first instance, for its own interests, it now sided with the anti-Morsi movement gathering momentum. It was, in any event, a short step from there to the Army Chief, Gen. Sisi (later elevated to field marshal), claiming the crown for himself in a new election, with most Egyptians weary and seeking stability after three years of turmoil.
So we have the familiar prospect of yet another armed forces chief at the helm of power in the land of the pharaohs. The immediate problem facing the new ruler is the perilous state of the economy being propped up at the moment by billions of dollars pumped in by the oil-rich Gulf monarchies. And here comes the foreign angle, never far from changes in the Middle East.
The Gulf monarchies, led by Saudi Arabia, were delighted to see the end of the Brotherhood’s short reign and welcomed the anti-Morsi coup with open arms. After all, the Brotherhood, as one of the oldest movements in the region, has considerable regional influence giving birth to other national outfits. Understandably, the values the Brotherhood represents are anathema to the oil-rich Gulf rulers.
The Gulf rulers will be giving President Sisi further assistance, but Egypt will have to put its house in order, groaning as it is under back-breaking subsidies on food and energy supplies. There is also the Army’s own role in running an economic empire and the country’s fabled compact with crony capitalism. It is open to question whether the new ruler can cope with the immense challenges facing him.
The United States, a major actor in the region, finally sided with the anti-Mubarak movement and was careful not to call the coup that toppled Mr Morsi a coup to prevent a cut-off of funds. It will be generally supportive of the latest in the line of military rulers. But the Obama administration does not seem to have a road map for Egypt beyond the clichés.
President Sisi has vowed to finish the Muslim Brotherhood after imprisoning thousands of its supporters, the courts sentencing en masse hundreds to death — sentences that are unlikely to be carried out. He has, of course, banned the Brotherhood as a terrorist organisation. This is an impossible task, despite the harsh measures being adopted, Brotherhood supporters are still mounting anti-government demonstrations across Egypt. The 86-year-old organisation has grassroots support and continues to enjoy the gratitude of the millions nurtured by them.
Given the set of unenviable challenges, how will President Sisi fare? The impact of a reign of repression diminishes in intensity with time and it remains to be seen how long the suppression of the media will last. Many journalists — both domestic and foreign — have been imprisoned, including four journalists of the Al Jazeera international channel, one of them for some nine months and now on hunger strike.
Saudi Arabia is taking the lead in organising a more sustainable international economic aid programme to help Egypt out of its deep hole. The initial aid package of the sheikhdoms was an impressive $12 billion. The problem is how President Sisi can energise his people to swallow bitter pills to take the country forward. He has his constituencies of support and has an initial honeymoon period, but it will not last long.
