If there is a witches’ brew anywhere in the world, it is in West Asia. The advance of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (better known as ISIS) towards Baghdad after taking over Iraq’s second city of Mosul has sent shockwaves in the region and around the world, with the US sending an aircraft carrier and warships to the waters near the conflict.
Forty Indian construction workers have been abducted from the Iraq city of Mosul by ISIS militants. Indian diplomat Suresh Reddy will leave for Baghdad on Wednesday night to assist the Indian embassy in its efforts to rescue the abducted workers and Indian nurses working in hospitals in the crisis areas, though not all of them want to come home.
According to reports, there were around 10,000 Indians in Iraq, of which 6,000 were in the north, 3,000 in Baghdad and Basra while 1,000 were in disturbed areas.
The three-year civil war in Syria was converted into a regional crisis by sending millions of refugees into neighbouring states, apart from millions more displaced internally. And the main regional actors were Turkey on one side and Saudi Arabia and Qatar on the other, with Iran assisting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, apart from Russia supplying him with arms.
US President Barack Obama, who has come under attack from his Republican opponents at home, has been following a cautious policy mindful of the sentiments of his people who are war-weary. The Saudis and Qataris have been arming the Sunni fighters opposing Mr Assad, without caring about the Al Qaeda allegiance of some of them.
Turkey has been moderating its stance somewhat in relation to Syria over the years, with the Americans hesitating to intervene, and has even made overtures to its enemy Iran, symbolised by the path-breaking visit of the Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to Ankara. Even the Saudis and Qataris have become more discriminating in arming the anti-Assad opposition.
What has suddenly changed the picture is the onslaught of ISIS, a force the world has been familiar with in Syria, into Iraq. Even more revealing was the panic of the Iraqi forces the US spent billions on training and equipping. They fled from Mosul, leaving their arms and uniforms behind, with much of the population fleeing into the semi-autonomous Kurdish region.
In fact, the Iraqi Army also fled from the oil town of Kirkuk, in contention between the Kurds and the central Baghdad government. Thus far, if anyone has benefited from the ISIS hurricane, it is the Kurds whose fighters, the peshmergas, are now guarding the oil town from ISIS.
India is affected by the spike in oil prices and the safety of its nationals in Iraq.
But the crisis in Iraq and the march of ISIS pose bigger problems for the melting pot West Asia has become. Obviously, it has concentrated minds in Washington and many other world capitals. First, the onslaught of ISIS represents a danger to all regional states and the interests of the major powers, particularly the US.
As far as Iraq is concerned, it re-emphasises the foolishness of the 2003 US invasion and the incredible decision of its first viceroy to dismantle the Baathist army and state. As events evolved and led to Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki assuming the prime ministership emphasising the new-found empowerment of the majority Shias. In the intervening events, there was a somewhat successful attempt by Americans to enlist the disaffected Sunnis in a new force to fight Al Qaeda.
It is no surprise that the success of ISIS in Mosul and other areas of the northwest are Sunni-majority areas. The disaffected Sunnis have no reason to support the Maliki government and there are credible reports of ex-Baathists fighting with and for ISIS.
The world’s attention is now focused on future US action, with the prospect of new military strikes on ISIS forces while President Obama has made clear that there will be no US boots on the ground. Another interesting development is the Iranian eagerness to help fellow Shia-ruled Iraq openly, if necessary to complement Ameri-can action.
There is acute recognition in the region and across the world of the looming Shia-Sunni tussle that is shaping up, and ISIS and its ramifications will only hasten the conflict. But, as throughout history, necessity makes strange bedfellows. Who could have imagined a nascent Turkish-Iranian détente? And Iran and the US are engaged in talks to resolve the Iranian nuclear problem to iron out still vast differences. Iraq’s foreign minister Hoshiar Zebari has sent out an SOS call to the world to save his country, in addition to Prime Minister Maliki’s call to the US for urgent assistance.
Against this backdrop, Israel is seeking to strike a hard line towards negotiating with the Palestinians because a new unity government with the support of the Hamas has been formed. A new distraction is the reported kidnapping of Israeli teenagers on the West Bank, with a major Israeli military offensive to rescue them.
Negotiating this thicket of pride and prejudice is a Herculean task, with the US giving up its peace initiative for a time. Yet the tensions underlying the injustice of the occupation and colonisation of Palestine will remain a constant, with no signs of a settlement in the near future.
It is revealing that even the seminal issue of Palestine has receded to the background as major regional and world problems grapple with the frightening prospect of a brutal fundamentalist organisation like ISIS spreading its wings throughout West Asia. At the same time, it is an irony of history that President Assad has held an election in his war-torn country in areas controlled by the regime giving himself another seven years of office.
There are no easy answers to the complex set of problems thrown up by ISIS and the widening Sunni-Shia divide. The Obama administration seems to be steeling itself for a demonstration of strength, more to reassure its regional allies than out of conviction. It is no secret how disappointed some of US allies, particularly Saudi Arabia, were when President Obama stayed his hand in striking Syria at the last minute over its use of chemical weapons.
The world is waiting.
