Despite a rough start to the markets at the start of August due to negative global cues, euphoric trading after upbeat US and German data and a renewed FII buying in the last two weeks propelled indices to record high closing levels.
On the BSE, the Sensex added 316 points (1.21 per cent) to end at 26419 and the Nifty on the NSE closed up 121 points (1.56 per cent) at 7913. Surge in midcap and smallcap indices reflects widespread participation. RBI annual report has stated that economy could grow in the range of 5-6 per cent in FY15. Post I-Day speech of PM, markets regained momentum on hopes that PM will be able to anchor the economy towards growth and lower deficit. Q1 GDP data and F&O settlement may induce some volatility.
FII inflows, global cues, international crude oil prices and progress of monsoon will determine the near term direction. For the week ahead chartists predict trading range of 26000-26900 for the Sensex and 7775-8050 for the Nifty. Immediate supports for the indices are at 26250 & 26050 and 7855 & 7780. With indices in uncharted territory track “momentum” for tell tale indications in investors and corporate managers trying to understand the market must recognise that it’s a complex adaptive system. It’s action reflects the interaction of many agents, with varying knowledge and motivation. So, disproportionate focus on individual opinions can be hazardous to wealth creation.
