As I write this at 4 pm on Sunday, election results and projections keep coming in. While the results on each channel are the same as they should be, there are different sets of projected figures on each channel. If that is so, even when the tallies are almost completely counted, what it shows is that the science of political predictions is still not a science. What would be interesting to do — at least from an academic point of view — is to sit down when the results are final and compare the seats won by each party with the numbers predicted by exit polls on voting day, October 15.
Whatever that exercise proves, the electorate has decisively proved one thing: it wants the Congress out. Whether in Haryana or Maharashtra, the party’s tally is pitiful. In Maharashtra, one of the most important states in the country, its manufacturing hub and financial capital, it has fallen from being top dog to third place. And it’s perilously close to coming in fourth, going neck to neck with its erstwhile partner, the Nationalist Congress Party.
If there is one species of human being one must feel really sorry for, it is the Congress Party’s spokesmen. How heroically they hunt for crumbs! Two prize ones are that the Congress’ vote share is not too different from the last election; and that it is only the split in votes due to the parting of ways with the NCP that has caused its numbers to decline so drastically. Another crumb is that it has done rather well in rural areas. One hopes that at least inner party circles do not hide behind these excuses. If they do, the party is doomed to oblivion in the coming years. Its only hope for resurrection will then be that in the next five years the Bharatiya Janata Party fails spectacularly in government so that the Congress can ride to victory on the anti-incumbency factor.
If I were a Congress-man, the only consolation I would take from the defeat in Maharashtra is that the party has got rid of its coalition partner, NCP. Starting from the general elections to now, one of the major factors in the Congress’ decline has been the corruption issue, and most of the scams were scripted by its coalition partners, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and NCP.
The cast of characters that make up the NCP is quite remarkable, starting from the considerable figure of Sharad Pawar himself. His has been a long career in politics, which has straddled chief ministership and the most important Cabinet posts in Delhi. Yet what will he be remembered for? His nephew Ajit Pawar has already distinguished himself by his insensitivity. Remember his remark when confronted by the drought facing Vidarbha? “So what should I do,” he said, “pee into the reservoir?” R.R. Patil’s long stint as Maharashtra’s home minister was distinguished by his obsessive closing down of Mumbai’s dance bars, but he topped even Ajit Pawar the other day: when a rape by a politician was brought to his notice, he said, “Couldn’t he have raped after the election?” And then there is the polished figure of Praful Patel who as aviation minister single handedly destroyed Air India.
So, for the Congress, it’s good riddance. If it faces the painful process of rebuilding, it is far, far better that it does so alone without the baggage of venal allies. But who will do this rebuilding? Obviously, any such effort will have to be centered around Sonia Gandhi — to that there seems to be no present alternative. The important question is this: will she have the courage to see the writing on the wall which is so obvious to all of us?
The writing on the wall says this: In the harsh world of politics, it’s not enough to be a person of integrity, to be “clean”. Manmohan Singh and Prithviraj Chauhan were both that. But their lack of dynamism, decisiveness and ruthlessness, so essential to a leader, proved disastrous for the party. Rahul Gandhi is of the same mould. He is obviously someone of integrity. He means well. He has no lust for power. He wants to build the party from bottom up… But he too lacks dynamism and charisma. With him leading the party, it will continue to flounder and may even sink into a hole deeper than the one it finds itself in now.
It’s ironical, but in victory the BJP’s dilemma is the exact opposite of the Congress’: the Haryana and Maharashtra results have made the party which always swore by collective leadership into a one-man band. Think of this: in Maharashtra, there were five parties contesting the election and each one had a clear leader except the BJP. The party that has emerged with the largest number of seats had no public persona except the Prime Minister in Delhi. The BJP is now clearly Narendra Modi’s party. Starting with Amit Shah, who he has imposed as the party’s president, his grip on the levers of power is complete. The dangers of so much concentration of power in one pair of hands are obvious, as are the dangers of raised expectations. Can you believe it, even though the BJP has never won so many seats in Maharashtra, most people say that the results are disappointing? That’s what happens when the faithful expect you to turn water into wine.
Even Mr Modi’s worst critics will agree that he has shown dynamism in everything he does; he has also the one quality that defines a strong leader, a seemingly inexhaustible store of energy. But even someone who is famous for working long hours and sleep as little as possible has to face one physical limitation — a day has only 24 hours. As a result Mr Modi has only tinkered with the system. The promised major reforms are nowhere in sight. His obsessive control of power means that even after five months in government, the country has no full-time defence minister!
By the time you read this, the new chief minister of Maharashtra will probably be in place. He will have to contend with two major problems as he takes up office — he will have to live with the demands of the Shiv Sena as a coalition partner, plus he will have to live with the fact that he cannot be his own man: he will only be Mr Modi’s man in Mumbai.
The writer is a senior journalist
