Results of the recent elections to the state Assemblies of Maharashtra and Haryana only confirm Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bid for total power. In Maharashtra, he had his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, abruptly break its 25-year-old alliance with the Shiv Sena. In Haryana, it ditched its ally the Haryana Janhit Congress.
The BJP won a resounding majority in Haryana winning 47 seats in a house of 90, as against the four it won earlier. In Maharashtra, it won 122 seats out of 288. The Shiv Sena won 63, the Congress 42, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) led by Sharad Pawar 41.
Pawar broke up his alliance with the Congress before the polls. After the results, he offered unconditional support to the BJP from outside thus assuring it of a majority.
The BJP’s “natural ally” the Shiv Sena thus lost its bargaining clout. Its leader Udhav Thackeray overplayed his cards in a bid to be chief minister. His bargaining power reduced drastically.
The Sena was founded in the mid-1960s avowedly to secure jobs for Marathi-speaking persons but it soon trained its guns on Muslims, instigating riots. Meanwhile, under L.K. Advani’s leadership the BJP acquired a yet more stridently anti-Muslim policy.
He entered into a Faustian pact with founder Bal Thackeray to fight the polls together in Maharashtra but with the Sena as a senior partner. The sordid deal yielded to both a brief tenure of power in Maharashtra.
But little did the Sena realise that after the death of Bal Thackeray its decline had set in. It had abandoned its original but distinctive plank of “Marathi manoos” (Marathi men) and plumped instead for Hindutva. This cost it its distinctive character.
One of its leading figures said in private that the BJP would, before long, swallow the Shiv Sena.
That process has now begun. With a commanding position at the Centre, it is the BJP, not the Sena, which will attract more support in the days ahead.
Equally bleak are the prospects for both the Congress and the NCP. While it is too early to sing a requiem to the Congress, the NCP is struggling hard to keep itself alive. Three of its senior colleagues face charges of corruption. Overtures to the BJP were designed to ensure their protection.
Between the Shiv Sena and the NCP, it is the Sena which has better chances of survival though both face the threat of defections. It is considerations like these which bound the BJP and the Sena together.
For reasons not hard to guess the Brihanmumbai (Greater Mumbai) Municipal Corporation has been called “one of the world’s richest municipalities”. The Sena has run it in alliance with the BJP. If the BJP decided to part company the BMC will slip out of the Sena’s control.
A BJP leader summed up the situation neatly. “We are natural allies” but for reasons other than ideological. “They need us to run the BMC. We need them to run Maharashtra. But with the NCP dying to back us, we have an option. They (the Sena) have none.”
The Sena read the writing on the wall and decided to make overtures to the BJP if only to get some slice of power. The BJP, however, stipulated conditions before talking of portfolios. The dent in the Sena’s prestige is huge.
The net result is a massive accretion of power to the BJP and to its leader Narendra Modi, personally. The old guard in the party, Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi and the rest, has been securely put on the shelf. The victory is his alone. He wields unchecked power. The Cabinet comprises enthusiastic “yes men”. The secretaries report directly to the Prime Minister over the heads of their own ministers, to whom they ought to report.
Regional parties are under threat. In Punjab, the BJP is junior partner to the Akali Dal but the alliance is under strain because the Dal opposed the BJP’s ally in Haryana. Bihar, which goes to the polls next year, is the BJP’s next target.
The drive for total power is in full throttle. BJP president Amit Shah declared emphatically on October 2: “The era of coalitions dawned because of the absence of an undisputed leader. It is getting over now that we have got one in Modiji whose appeal is all inclusive.”
It is a fearful prospect. The Congress runs around like a headless chicken. Its president Sonia Gandhi preferred to build up her son Rahul rather than a second rung of leadership.
Most of the media enthusiastically admires Modi, as do business and industry. This impairs constitutional checks on power. This frenzy for total power poses a threat to democratic governance.
The writer is an author and lawyer based in Mumbai
By arrangement with Dawn
