To say that China and Saudi Arabia are the closest friends and biggest benefactors of Pakistan would be to stress the obvious. Nor can anyone deny that, but for Beijing’s consistent nuclear and missiles aid to, and the Saudi monarchy’s generous financing of, Islamabad’s clandestine nuclear programme there would have been no Pakistani bomb. The reason for mentioning these familiar facts today is an exquisite irony: the strikingly opposite manners in which Pakistan’s two mentors have treated their protégé during the last few days.
Arriving in Islamabad after several postponements of his visit, China’s President Xi Jinping gave such a big boost to his country’s strategic and economic relations with its “all-weather friend” that many were surprised but not those who have been duly watchful of the nuances in the relationship that is sometimes called “higher than the Himalayas and deeper than the Indian Ocean”.
Let me mention just two of the recent subtle hints. First, on January 26, when US President Barack Obama was in New Delhi to be the chief guest on India’s Republic Day, Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Raheel Sharif, was in Beijing. The Chinese announced that from then onwards Pakistan was China’s “irreplaceable all-weather friend”. Second, on the day he landed in Pakistan, Mr Xi wrote a signed op-ed article in Pakistani newspapers declaring: “I am going to visit the home of my own brother.”
Against this backdrop, during the Chinese President’s two-day stay the two governments signed 51 agreements of which no fewer than 30 relate to the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) connecting China’s western province of Xinjiang with the Chinese-built and now China-run port of Gwadar on Pakistan’s Makran coast close to the Strait of Hormuz that couldn’t have been closer to China’s main source of energy. In one move, the distance of the energy route to China will be reduced by 12,000 km and it will not have to worry about the chokepoint of the Strait of Malacca. The cost of the project is $46 billion over 15 years! Before saying more on the subject, let us first take note of the totally different drama between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan that is particularly painful for Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Mr Sharif owes a huge debt of gratitude to the Saudi royal family, not merely for the tremendous help and support, including free supply of oil and plenty of cash it has given to Pakistan. The Saudi monarchy also rescued Mr Sharif from life imprisonment to which the Pakistan’s military dictator, General Pervez Musharraf, had sentenced him in 1999. The Sharif family lived luxuriously in exile in Saudi Arabia. Moreover, the Saudis saw to it that when, on the eve of the 2008 elections in Pakistan, Gen. Musharraf allowed Benazir Bhutto to come back from exile, Mr Sharif was given the same right.
No wonder then that there was consternation during Mr Sharif’s visit to Riyadh not long ago. For the new King Salman and other members of the royal family went to the airport to receive him. Nothing like this had happened before. The key to this became known only a few days later when Saudi Arabia started bombing the Houthis (Shias) in Yemen and announced that other Islamic countries — including Pakistan, Egypt and Sudan — were with the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the war against Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis.
Since this problem dates back to ancient times and has remained unresolved so far, it made sense that Riyadh demanded of Pakistan to send troops, fighter aircraft and naval ships. Most people believed that Pakistan, especially Mr Sharif, won’t be able to say no to the Saudi royal family. But obviously, he and his country had other compulsions, too. In the first place, Pakistan has a 900-km border with Iran, and its participation in a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran can be disastrous for it. Secondly, and far more importantly, the decision-maker in Pakistan is Gen. Sharif in khaki, not Mr Sharif in civvies. According to the Gen., Pakistan Army has its hands full dealing with the Taliban and other terrorists it had initially nurtured but who have since turned against the Pakistani state.
Therefore, both the Sharifs left it to Parliament to decide on the issue, and it unanimously voted against joining the Yemen war. Instead, it resolved that Pakistan should mediate to end the dispute peacefully. The GCC’s reaction to it was sharp. A minister of state of the United Arab Emirates commented that Pakistan would have to “pay a heavy price” for its policy. The Saudi press described Pakistan’s offer of mediation as “a joke”. When Mr Sharif sent his brother and Punjab chief minister Shehbaz Sharif to soften Riyadh, the royal family refused to even meet him. Then the Prime Minister went himself, only to receive a conspicuously cold shoulder.
To return to China’s grand design in and across Pakistan, some Indian experts seem to think that CPEC has been talked of for a decade and nothing might happen for a long time. They are wrong. During the last decade Mr Xi was not in power. The present Xinjiang-Gwadar venture is at the heart of his “signature initiative” for a Silk Road Economic Belt and a Maritime Silk Road to connect China with South and Central Asia and beyond to its energy suppliers and European markets. Nor can it be overlooked that in its relationship with Pakistan the emphasis is on security rather than economics. Otherwise, the supply of as many as eight submarines to Pakistan makes no sense. Any expectation by India to get access to CPEC would be a classic example of the triumph of hope over experience. However, to make a thorough assessment of what is in store, it is necessary to wait for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China in a fortnight’s time.
