It is a truism to say that we live in an interconnected world, but the force of this aphorism was startlingly brought home to Europeans as the invasion of thousands of desperate people from the Arab world and Africa reached Italy’s shores dead or alive. Europe, particularly the northern countries, has always been a beacon to people seeking to better their lives, as we know from the many Indians who have tried their luck.
But the crisis Europeans are facing is of a different kind because the people breaching Italian shores are not economic migrants but families seeking safety from the wars that afflict their countries. In a sense, this is payback time. Outside powers, the US and Europe, have contributed their share in making the countries of West Asia and Africa what they are today, Libya being a prime example of how getting rid of Muammar Gaddafi has led to anarchy with two governments and rival militias ruling their fiefdoms.
Italy, because of its geographical location, has been bearing the brunt of the refugee onslaught. Even as it egged the European Union to share the burden and a summit decided to treble the budget for coping with the task, the irony of the situation was highlighted. Richer European countries were willing to throw more money and aircraft and helicopters at the problem but would rather not have refugees.
The truth is that the new refugee crisis comes at a difficult time for Europe. Parties of the right are enjoying a rejuvenation in Britain, France, The Netherlands, Austria and even in Germany as recession has sapped support for mainstream parties. Britain has a problem all its own as many people seem to be turning their backs on the EU and it is now locked in the final stage of a general election that defies prediction.
It must be said to Germany’s credit that it has been most generous in taking in refugees even as it is meeting a backlash from the extreme right. Britain has simply said “no” while other countries are prevaricating. It is no secret that most refugees who manage to reach Europe want to go to Germany and Britain. And Sweden has bravely come forward to take its share.
We must first disabuse the fallacy that the EU is tottering. Britain suffers from the complex that it is unique and is therefore entitled to special concessions. But elsewhere in the group, the seeming anti-EU mood is because people believed that the unprecedented post-World War II prosperity brought about in a significant measure by national governments giving up powers to the collective is a permanent phenomenon. Long years of recession have taken their toll as national parties on the fringe have exploited popular dejection.
Refugees from the Arab world and Africa will not stop coming to Europe because the prospects of peace are far in their lands. The one bright element in an otherwise bleak situation is the attempt by the US and major European powers to complete a nuclear deal with Iran. If successful, this would present a new set of problems in the tussle between the two major regional players, Saudi Arabia and Iran. But that would be far healthier than the mess that exists.
The phenomenon of the IS and its variants like ISIS or ISIL has brought the US military back to the region. The Shia-Sunni schism has taken stronger roots because of recent conflicts. The American intervention in Iraq, for instance, was in a sense a gift to Iran because a Sunni-ruled dictatorship yielded place to a Shia-majority dispensation. No wonder many Sunni leaders, now at the receiving end, sided with the IS, rather than their new tormentors, the Shia militias.
The fleeing refugees are thus caught between two pincers: the power struggles at home muddied by outside interference and a Europe seemingly veering to the right. Indications suggest that the economic tide is turning for the better in Europe but it is a process that will take time.
.Where do the refugees go from here? There is much discussion in European capitals over tackling the middlemen who make money using the refugees by trafficking them to Europe. But the problem is that countries like Libya have no government to police its shores. And the situation in Iraq and Syria provides many opportunities for traffickers.
As in many crises caused by the geopolitical interests of major powers, the UN plays a peripheral role and is brought in only when the mighty have achieved their goals or are exhausted.
