All tourists go-ing to China are told by various tou-rism sites and books that they “must” visit three places: Xian (the “past” of China), Beijing (the “present” of China) and Shanghai (the “future” of China). Narendra Modi, who has made numerous successful visits abroad in the first year of his tenure as Prime Minister, has obviously decided to follow the well-trodden tourist path.
On May 14, 2015, Mr Modi will land in Xian (the hometown of President Xi Jinping) where he will be received by Mr Xi and be taken around before proceeding to Beijing for official talks on May 15. The next day, May 16, Mr Modi will visit Shanghai where the highlight of his visit is the address to the Indian community (students and businessmen) in China. Typically, the Indian media will cover this mega event and compare it with Mr Modi’s similar talks to enthusiastic Indian communities in the United States, Australia and Canada. On May 17, Mr Modi will visit Mongolia, followed by South Korea on May 18-19.
Mr Modi’s attempts in attracting foreign direct investment to India has resulted in “paltry” pledges (considering India’s size and population, $1 trillion is needed) — $20 billion from China, $35 billion from Japan, $41 billion from the US and $2 billion from France. I am certain that Mr Modi is aware that Pakistan received pledges of $46 billion Chinese economic aid during President Xi’s recent visit to Islamabad, and that Pakistan also signed a $5 billion contract for supply of eight Chinese-built, 4,000-tonne Qing-class conventional submarines. These will be fitted out for carrying Chinese designed 500-km range nuclear-tipped cruise missiles to threaten Indian coastal cities.
In addition, Pakistan, which locally produces 14 Chinese-designed JF-17 Thunder jet fighters annually, also signed a contract with China to supply another 110 JF-17 fighter jet. The payment for these fighter jets and submarines will, of course, be made from the $31 billion (of which $22 billion was military aid) gifted to Pakistan by the US between 2001 and 2015.
China, of course, has in the past transferred technology to Pakistan for local manufacture of ballistic and cruise missiles, uranium nuclear warheads and plutonium tactical nuclear weapons. Now that the US has apparently decided that it needs India as a “strategic ally” in South Asia to counter China as part of its “pivot to Asia” policy, the Chinese have decided to fill the void and ensure not only that Pakistan does not collapse economically, but it keeps India off-balance and provides China strategic presence in Gwadar port (located only 360 miles from the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which over 70 per cent of Chinese, Indian and Japanese oil imports move by sea). To overcome China’s “Malacca dilemma”, Pakistan has handed over management of Gwadar port (funded and built by China) to a Chinese company. Some of the $46 billion Chinese aid will be utilised to connect Gwadar port to China’s Xinjiang province by rail, road and oil pipeline via the Karakoram Pass, thus avoiding the Strait of Malacca choke point that can be exploited in wartime by the Indian and US navies.
It’s only a matter of time before Chinese warships, conventional and nuclear submarines (already making publicised forays into the Indian Ocean since 2008), are based at Gwadar port, which will compensate for the recent decisions of the new Sri Lanka government to review Chinese port projects in Sri Lanka. In addition, once the Chinese 1,500 km range, anti-aircraft carrier ballistic missile system (DF-21) becomes fully operational in the western Pacific (where it will counter US Navy aircraft carriers), the Chinese are expected to base the same DF-21 system along Pakistan’s Balochistan coast to threaten Indian Navy aircraft carriers operating in the Arabian Sea.
The much debated “string of pearls” which will be the Chinese Navy component of the highly-publicised Chinese “Land and Maritime Silk Routes” or “LMSR” to connect China economically to Europe, thus replicating the well known 15 century land and sea silk routes is well on its way to becoming a reality in India’s backyard. The Chinese are also interested that India joins the “LMSR” club, by providing them access to Kolkata port via a rail and road link through Indian territory. On May 7, Chinese media reported China’s proposal for India and China to jointly carry out sea bed mineral exploration in the Indian Ocean. This needs to be examined for security implications before any agreement is signed in a hurry.
Presumably, Mr Modi is also aware that India has very little manoeuvring room since past governments had recognised Chinese sovereignty over Tibet and allowed Chinese troops to take over parts of the unguarded Aksai Chin between 1951 and 1953, and grabbed some more parts of Aksai Chin after the brief 1962 Indo-China war. Presently China has well publicised claims over some more Indian territory in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, and its Army is “nibbling away” at Indian territory.
Also looming on the horizon are “water wars” involving India-Pakistan and India-China. Acute shortage of water for irrigation and drinking has resulted in Pakistan raising the “water bogey” in addition to the Kashmir question. This issue can be resolved under the 1960 Indo-Pak Indus Water Treaty. Unfortunately for India, China has refused to have any treaties about rivers that emanate in the Tibetan plateau, including the Brahmaputra (also known as Yarlung Zangbo river in China).
The Chinese have been building several dams on the Brahmaputra in the portion flowing through Tibet (one of which is known as “Zangmu” gravity dam on the Brahmaputra river to produce 510 MWe at a place near Gyaca in Tibet, and is expected to be ready by 2015) which they claim are for generating electrical power, and hence water flow of the Brahmaputra to India will not be reduced as the river will continue to flow to India after generating power in China. Unfortunately, the Chinese media does routinely mention the need to divert the river Brahmaputra to the north to irrigate arid regions of China. If China does this, it will destroy India’s Northeast, ecologically and economically, and may lead to a war.
I am sure Mr Modi realises that he will be dealing with very hard-nosed Chinese leaders, and that there are “no out of the box” solutions to complicated territorial disputes. Merely increasing bilateral trade is no guarantee of peace as the Japanese discovered while dealing with Chinese claims in the Asia Pacific. Ceding territory is also no guarantee of peace, as our Tamil fishermen have discovered after India handed over the small 285 acre Kachchitivu island to Sri Lanka in 1974.
The Modi visit may attract the much-needed Chinese FDI, but it must not result in giving away territory under Indian control. Mr Modi needs to take some “out of the box” decisions to enhance the national economy and security. Apart from increasing India’s defence budget, creating a post of Chief of Defence Staff, he needs to review India’s “No First Use” nuclear doctrine, so that China is deterred from any misadventures.
The writer retired as Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Eastern Naval Command, Visakhapatnam
