Hyderabad: The monsoons are expected to hit Kerala within the next two days, much later than what the Indian Meteorological Department had initially predicted.
Scientists claim there is a huge gap between the accuracy of prediction of the monsoon that can be achieved and what is currently being achieved.
Researchers say that the failure of climate models to accurately predict is due to global warming.
Climate models are used by meteorological agencies to predict future weather events, most importantly, the southwest monsoon.
However, meteorological researchers now say that failure of climate models to accurately predict the onset of the monsoon and drought years is due to their failure to factor in global warming events like the central-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation, boreal spring Arctic Oscillations and changes in the North and South Pacific Ocean triggered by global warming.
A joint study by meteorological researchers from the ministry of earth sciences, institutions in China, the US and South Korea, found a “considerable gap between Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) prediction skill and predictability.”
The study said that monsoon prediction accuracy could be increased by as much as 41 per cent.
“While the dynamical models are steadily improving, the skill of the best model is still significantly below potential limit of predictability,” stated the study by Bin Wang and Jian Liu at International Pacific Research Centre and the department of meteorology, University of Hawaii in Nature journal.
Scientists say the decrease in accuracy concurs with the last three decades when there has been a 0.4ºC rise in average temperature due to global warming. Over the last 92 years, existing models have predicted drought and flood years but the extent of damage is often underestimated. There have also been two false alarms.
