Despite the onslaught in Parliament and outside, which showed that the Congress had not curled up and died after its miserable performance in the last elections, the fact is that the Modi government is essentially unshakeable. It has a brute majority and it has almost four more years ahead of it. Besides, while the Congress managed to stall parliamentary business, that is not a strategy that can work each time.
But the Modi government is making a mistake to think that it remains politically unchallenged. There may not be an external force that can shake it, but in the last few weeks, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been blindsided by criticism and dissent — some of it violent — from within. Mr Modi had held out the promise of real change on many fronts — today that promises are sounding hollow. He also had the firm backing of several constituencies; it is they who are now the most disappointed and angry. Mr Modi can afford not to care about the Congress, but can be so dismissive about those who were his biggest supporters?
The agitation by the Patels in Gujarat is a good example. The Bharatiya Janata Party has received tremendous support from the Patels in the state. In 1985, it was the Patels who came out in large numbers to fight Madhavsinh Solanki’s reservation policies, boosting the BJP in the state. Since then, the prosperous Patels, who count for 15 per cent of Gujarat’s population but display political and economic clout far beyond those numbers, have always sided with the BJP. There are seven Patels, including the chief minister, in the Cabinet. They own land, factories, diamond polishing units and have a footprint in rural and urban Gujarat and all over the world. In short, they are privileged and powerful. And they have stayed away from the Congress for decades.
But now they appear to be angry with the BJP. There are a host of conspiracy theories about the agitation, including one which suggests that this is planned by the Sangh Parivar to rake up the issue of reservation and move towards doing away with them entirely. For the moment, let us only consider what is happening in the state — violence and threats to politically fight the BJP and remove it from power in 2017, in case the Patels’ demands are not met.
In Delhi meanwhile, a much more peaceful protest by ex-soldiers has been going on for weeks. Our services culture is disciplined and apolitical — and thank God for that — but it is clear that the retired soldiers are angry and bitter that a promise has been broken. In their book, you don’t make a casual promise and then turn the other way when the time comes to fulfil it. Mr Modi had himself declared he would implement the One Rank, One Pension policy that the soldiers want. They feel they have been discriminated against and when a politician who positions himself as a man of action says he will definitely push it through, they expect him to do it.
More so since he and his party never lose any opportunity to present themselves as ultra-nationalist, muscular and uber-patriotic. But it has been a year and more and Mr Modi, the man of action, has not been able to come up with a solution. It is not as if the soldiers did not give this government any time. Perhaps there are compelling reasons why OROP will not work — lack of funds, or a burden that could throw the government’s finances out of gear. But why doesn’t the government be transparent about it and why didn’t he study it before he made the grand announcement? So was this yet another “jumla”? And is Mr Modi all talk no action?
The same questions are being asked by businessmen, big and small, who had heavily invested in Mr Modi as the answer to their problems. The economy was drifting, corruption was rife, governance had come to a stand still — Mr Modi would come and remove all the hurdles that would turbo charge the economy. That’s what they had hoped. Instead, what we see is a falling rupee, a volatile stock market and not a real reform in sight. Ask any businessman today and he will still complain of inspector raj and tax terrorism. Corporate honchos don’t march on the streets or pelt stones, but they do sit in their boardrooms and clubs and grumble. And their voices carry weight. A government that promised it would be business-friendly cannot afford to annoy such a valuable cohort.
It’s not as if the National Democratic Alliance cannot turn things around. However bleak it looks at the moment, the government and its leader still enjoy support and even those who are disappointed are ready to give it time. But for that, Mr Modi and his team will have to make some serious lifestyle changes. A more open government, a government that listens and a government that takes others along — that will have to be the new mantra. It cannot go into a shell at the first hint of dissent or criticism.
The attacks by Rahul Gandhi appeared to have stung Mr Modi when he could have easily flicked them off. The constant refrain that this is a government that is pro-big business froze the government into inaction — it ended up expending a lot of political capital on the Land Acquisition Bill, which was eventually dropped. This was a Prime Minister who in his first speech talked of working together with the Opposition — now he does not even face them in Parliament.
This tactic may have worked at the state level; at the Centre, where regional parties are represented, it is a tactical mistake. Why would they support you in your initiatives if you are not ready to even acknowledge them? Sitting comfortably in the knowledge that no one can dislodge you would be a mistake. That may be factually true, but when your own supporters start moving away from you, the foundations become weak. When the time comes to ask for their support again, you may find they have disappeared.
