Politically there is so much riding on it that the official notification of the Bihar Assembly poll by the Election Commission on Wednesday has thrown the principal combatants into a tizzy. The five-phase election is to be held between October 1 and November 5, and the result is scheduled for November 8. The parties in the fray are in a flap because they have got less time than is customary to get their candidates to file nominations.
Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and its allies — the RJD and the Congress — can be said to be somewhat better prepared than the rival NDA front led by the BJP. They have managed to agree on how many seats each will contest. But this is not saying much. The squabbling between alliance partners begins the minute they talk particular seats.
The front of small regional parties the BJP leads is still at the stage of figuring out the share of seats for each partner. Which particular seats — and that’s stage two — is going to be a doubly tricky issue for them. The saffron party, for the first time seeking to be one pole of politics in the politically important North Indian state, may bid to contest enough seats to be able to form government on its own even though notionally there is a front which it heads — a replica of the Lok Sabha situation.
The Bihar BJP is basically an upper caste party, but its teammates are from the dalit and extreme dalit groups. How this works on the ground is an open question. The NDA’s rivals are a backward caste (Mandal orientation) group with the Congress throwing in its lot with them to give shape to a “secular” front. The Muslim vote is likely to be claimed by this combine. But before a key election everything is up for grabs really since CM Nitish Kumar and PM Narendra Modi, the NDA mascot, are both pitching their appeal to the electorate through the development plank. A lot will depend on what the Bihar electorate thinks of the PM.
Based on his performance at the Centre, is he still credible? Much could turn on the answer to this question. As for the Bihar CM, it is broadly acknowledged that his performance on the development index has been all right. The problem with him is his association with Lalu Prasad Yadav, widely seen as anti-development when he was CM.
If BJP loses, this will be equal to the PM losing.
That would make the going uphill for the saffron party all over the country, especially in Parliament. If people look for change and the local JDU-led combine loses, BJP will come roaring back after its poor showing in Delhi last February.
