Reports say that people in poll-bound Bihar will see more of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. By all accounts he will speak at more election rallies than in states that went to polls last year. This is indicative of the realisation in the Bharatiya Janata Party that its campaign requires greater impetus from Mr Modi because the challenge is far bigger.
In its list of star campaigners to the Election Commission, the BJP also included party veterans Lal Krishna Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi and Patna MP Shatrughan Sinha. Because the names of the elder duo were included in previous state polls but chose not to campaign, there is no certainty that they will address any campaign meeting in Bihar. Similarly, the cine actor has spoken like a loose cannon in recent months and it remains to be seen if the BJP will risk providing him with a party platform. Consequently, the BJP campaign will be completely dependent on Mr Modi.
This strategy has both plusses and minuses. The hallmark of Mr Modi’s campaign for the Lok Sabha polls — and repeated in the Assembly campaigns in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana — was that it elevated the discourse from local issues and gave a more national character to factors voters weighed before making up their mind.
Mr Modi’s personality and politics is based on subsuming the “other” into his global worldview and not incorporating the viewpoint of others into his political construct. He is not an instinctively assimilative personality but is inherently instructive. In all his election campaigns there is an element of pre-decision from his side, regarding what is “good” for the people. In the context of Bihar, the concept of development that is foisted on the people is what he construes they require.
But, more importantly, Mr Modi’s political vision is non-pluralistic in nature. Mr Modi’s dominance also has the capacity to consume a significant player like Ram Vilas Paswan. Having been restricted to the margins despite being in government, Mr Paswan expected to be given greater importance during seat distribution. He has little option but to accept humiliation, and redemption only if Mr Modi is humbled. This naturally would make Mr Paswan less enthusiastic about campaigning for candidates from parties other than his.
While Mr Modi’s singular approach may find acceptance in regions with less sub-regional identity, there may be a different opinion in Bihar. Moreover, Bihar’s economy is less integrated with the national economy. Though they voted for the BJP despite a similar ground reality, the people in Jharkhand opted for the BJP last year primarily because instability had been a recurring feature of all governments since it was hived off Bihar.
But the relative disconnection between Bihar and the rest of India also has the capacity to convert into a major advantage for the BJP because the erosion of his image is not as significant in Bihar as it is in Delhi or even nationally. There is also the dichotomy that despite growing sentiment that the Modi government had not done enough, the youth was still rooting from him — nationally as well as in Bihar.
In a peculiar situation, Mr Modi and Nitish Kumar negate the advantage each one has. Contrasting the continued grip of Mr Modi over sections of the electorate, the chief minister has the advantage of not facing a strong anti-incumbency sentiment. There is near certain unanimity that his first tenure was better than the second one. Yet, because of the goodwill earned by establishing the rule of law between 2005 and 2010, it is not easy to accuse the incumbent of non-performance.
But if Mr Modi’s ambition of winning Bihar comes unstuck, it will be primarily because of Lalu Prasad Yadav and his political resurrection. A perfect foil to
Mr Modi, Mr Yadav is clearly the dominant leader in the Grand Alliance. For every diatribe of Mr Modi, Mr Yadav has a reply and another one ready and this is a contest he is enjoying every bit because after several years he can campaign unfettered and with a wider caste alliance to back him. In seat distribution, Mr Yadav had the gumption to take maximum risks and is contesting the most seats that are currently held by the BJP.
Mr Yadav is a double-edged weapon, with the capacity to prevent Hindu consolidation in favour of the BJP and instead force Backward Caste polarisation in face of the significant upper caste rally behind the BJP. This became a shade easier after Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh chief Mohan Bhagwat’s self-goal on reservations.
But because he is a double-edged weapon, Mr Yadav also has to contend with two major threats that can result in the Grand Alliance unravelling. Firstly,
Mr Kumar had secured a sizeable non-caste support because of the sustained manner in which he dismantled the criminal-political nexus that dominated the state when Mr Yadav ruled the roost.
This section is uncomfortable with his decision to form an alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal. So far, Mr Kumar has not revealed how he intends to allay fears of being swamped by Mr Yadav and his supporters. A strong anti-Lalu Prasad Yadav sentiment may threaten to frustrate the ambition of the Nitish-Lalu duo if a tangible strategy to overcome this is not evolved. Secondly, Mr Yadav is not popular among the youth barring within his own caste and among Muslims.
In these polls, Bihar offers a classic case of a bipolar contest where issues will be a blend of caste identity and development politics. The election scenario resembles the Kerala model dominated by Left Democratic Front and United Democratic Front with smaller parties picking up minor vote shares.
The entry of Asaduddin Owaisi’s All-India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul Muslimeen and the decision of Mulayam Singh Yadav to part ways with the Grand Alliance generated a buzz among BJP supporters. The decision of the Left parties to also contest separately will further complicate the electoral mathematic. Among these, Mr Owaisi is a new player on the block and there is considerable excitement because of AIMIM’s performance in Maharashtra.
However, unlike the western state where a few regions were once part of the Nizam state, Bihar is completely new terrain. For Muslims in Bihar, the decision would be motivated by preventing the BJP’s ascendance to power and when they look around, most will see the Grand Alliance as the one with the best chance of defeating the BJP. The BJP has not helped its cause within the community by its ham-handed handling of meat bans. Consequently, Bihar witnesses a clear two-horse race and the winner is likely to take it all.
The writer is the author of Narendra Modi:
The Man, the Times
