Reports are floating around in the media that several senior leaders in the Congress are informally discussing breaking away from the mothership and starting their own party. The main cause of their restlessness is that they are less than impressed with young Rahul Gandhi, currently vice-president and putative party chief and they fear for their own futures.
This presumably means not just their own personal standing within the party but also the party’s own future existence, because they are convinced that when he takes over — there is no if about that — he will doom the organisation and then they will find it difficult to jump ship. They are therefore looking at alternatives.
Anyone who knows the Congress Party will know that this restlessness is par for the course. At any given time someone or the other is always looking to leave, not the least because it is such a large organisation that not everyone is comfortable or satisfied at all times.
Power is the glue that keeps them together. That and their own perceived equation with important people — ideally the first family or, if that is not always possible, with others close to the first family. The Congress runs smoothest when it is in power or has a good chance of getting it some day; all the internal dissent is then under control. Not that it stops completely — there are always camps out to undermine each other and find ways to trip the other, but rarely does that dissidence get so out of hand that the high command has to step in.
Internal dissent in other parties works differently. The Bharatiya Janata Party is ideologically driven and besides there is the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, which can immediately put out a bush fire, because it sees difference of opinion as treachery. Anyone who has a problem with Narendra Modi today will have to contend with Nagpur; during Manmohan Singh’s time, there were many seniors who were doing their own thing. The regional and caste parties are really one-man (or one-woman) shoes and the slightest sign of rebellion can result in expulsion. In the Congress, the simmering can go on for months, even longer.
So who are these senior leaders who are plotting to leave, if reports are to be believed. It could be anybody’s guess, but one, Amarinder Singh, has made his views quite clear. He does not think Rahul Gandhi is up to it. In recent interviews he has poured scorn over the young Gandhi, even mocking his outings to dalit homes where he has eaten food. Mr Singh’s frustration is understandable — there is an election coming up in Punjab and control of the party machinery is with his bête noire Pratap Singh Bajwa.
The captain is looking to come back as the chief minister and thinks the Congress will not make it; why not try his luck elsewhere? Two possible routes are available to him — to join the BJP or to start his own party. The BJP will welcome both, just like it happily supported Mufti Muhammad Sayeed in Jammu and Kashmir and has quietly settled down to the junior party’s role in the government, because the BJP’s plan is to get a foot in the door everywhere.
But others in the Congress — the seniors, who think they are being sidelined — may not walk out so soon. There have been walkouts in the Congress over the years. Indira Gandhi split the party in 1969, and in 1977 many of her closest colleagues walked across to the newly formed Janata Party. Similarly, V.P. Singh and others walked out when Rajiv Gandhi was the Prime Minister and countless “senior” leaders have left to make their own way. Pranab Mukherjee, P. Chidambaram, Moopanar, N.D. Tiwari — all left the party at some stage or the other. Sharad Pawar left and returned — twice — and Mamata Banerjee has remained out.
Not everyone has been successful after leaving the party. The reason is not difficult to see. Creating an organisation and then sustaining it is not an easy job. A Mamata Banerjee is an exception. They may today feel smothered or irrelevant in a large party like the Congress, but it also gives comfort and sustenance. Despite its poor presence in the Lok Sabha and dwindling influence in state after state, it remains a national party. Its opinions carry weight. It has Opposition status in some states. Most of all, in politics, who is to say what will happen tomorrow — from 1996 to 2004 the Congress was floundering and then, much to everybody’s and perhaps its own surprise, it came back to power and stayed there for 10 years.
One alternative would be to join the BJP. The BJP might well take them in and give them positions, or at the very least tickets. Making that ideological shift will not be easy, but as we have seen, a few such as Najma Heptullah have managed it adroitly. It is possible that closer to election time, a few Congressmen and women will begin making critical comments about the Gandhis and say they are feeling stifled. That day is still far away.
For the moment, most Congress leaders who are unhappy will stay where they are because all other alternatives remain unattractive or impractical. But, could they join hands with each other and split to launch a new kind of Congress without the Gandhi mother and son? Could they declare that theirs is the real Congress? In which case, they could aim for the Congress vote.
Again, history is a good guide. Indira Gandhi did it because she was unique; the Syndicate tried to pretend they had thrown her out, but they were quickly relegated to the dustbin of history. The same will happen today. Without the Gandhis at the helm, these Congressmen and women will find it difficult to agree upon a leader and it won’t be long before dissidence breaks out against him. In short, for the moment, the status quo is the best. Remain within the fold and keep on grumbling.
