It seems the BJP will have to continue bearing the minority tag in Rajya Sabha till the end of the NDA government’s five-year term. Therefore, for its key Bills including the GST to get cleared in Parliament, ruling party’s floor coordination with non-Congress and non-Janata Parivar members is going to matter the most.
With 62 members (including BJP’s 48) in Rajya Sabha, NDA is going to face a tough time in getting its key Bills passed. Losing Bihar means, the party lost its chance of bettering its number, as by next year, five vacancies from the state will be created and in 2018, six more will fall vacant for the Upper House, from which the ruling party can at maximum send one member with its current number of legislators.
Bihar along with Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, send around 81 members to the Rajya Sabha. In Uttar Pradesh, BJP has 47 members and around 11 seats will fall vacant from this state in the Upper House next year.
In 2017, Assembly elections are lined up in UP but BJP’s disastrous performance in Bihar is likely to cast a shadow on its poll prospects in UP. As a result, NDA’s number in the Upper House is unlikely to get any major boost from Uttar Pradesh.
Most of the states from where seats will fall vacant in Rajya Sabha by 2018 are ruled by non-NDA parties. In BJP-Shiv Sena ruled Maharashtra, six seats will fall vacant next year and another six in 2018. But a lot depends on how cordial the relationship between the duo will continue to be.
The only hope for the BJP seems to be in Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Goa and Rajasthan where around 22 seats will be vacant by 2018. But states like Mamata Banerjee-ruled West Bengal, J. Jayalalithaa- ruled Tamil Nadu and Naveen Patnaik-ruled Odisha will also be sending around the same number of new members by then.
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