Political turmoil to continue in new year

A troubled beginning for new year is on cards as the Congress-led UPA failed to get its decision to bifurcate the state materialise this year.  People, both rooting for separate  state and opposing it, will continue to agitate for their cause at least for first few months

Hyderabad: Millions of Telugus will step into 2014 with clouds of uncertainty hanging over their geographical, social, cultural and political identities as a result of the centre’s acceding to debating the T-bill for the carving out of a separate Telangana state from Andhra Pradesh.

A troubled beginning for new year is on cards as the Congress-led UPA failed to get its decision to bifurcate the state materialised this year itself. People, both wishing for separate state and opposing it, will continue to agitate for their cause at least for first few months.

“There will be high intensity political drama, first over the fate of AP Reorganisation Bill 2013 in Parliament followed by the general elections, and then in state assembly or assemblies of two Telugu speaking states depending on the outcome on the historical Bill in Parliament.

It is difficult, hence, to predict with certainty that Telangana state will be formed before the 2014 general elections,” says activist writer Prof. Kancha Ilaiah. According to him, it will not be easy for the Parliament to brush aside debates on the huge financial, social and political implications the creation of a new state would lead to and pass the Bill during budget session.

Though the pro-Telangana brigade do not agree with his contention, Ilaiah says the opinion of state Assembly, whether in form of opinion or resolution, will have a direct bearing on the debate in Parliament as serious matters relating to federal structure of the country are involved.

Lakshmi Narayana, director of Neelam Rajasekhar Reddy Research Centre, was of the view that the President would have to refer the Bill, which he says is very lopsided, to legal and constitutional experts once the Assembly sends its views. “Going by the tight time schedules wherein the general election process will commence sometime in February, it is difficult to create two states before it,” he pointed out.

File photo of people waiting in line to cast their vote.

However, the strong determination of Congress high command, in particular the Gandhi motherson duo, to push forward the Bill in the budget session is providing some credibility to the argument that the separate state will be a reality before 2014 polls.

“The division is essentially a political decision and its implementation will naturally depend on electoral benefits the Congress will get. It will not gain anything in Seemandhra by delaying the division but it will lose heavily in Telangana,” says noted political analyst and MLC Prof. K. Nageshwar.

The Centre also took a deliberate and conscious decision to formulate the Bill ignoring precedents as well as complicated legal issues like Article 371 D and special powers to Governor in the common capital. Despite Chief Minister N. Kiran Kumar Reddy insisting that a resolution by the state assembly is mandatory to initiate the division process, the Centre wanted to go ahead invoking articles 3 and 4 of Constitution which, according to the Group of Ministers, will have overriding powers on precedents and legal matters that may come in the way of division.

“Thanks to the crucial support being extended by the principal opposition BJP on several important Bills and overt support from regional satraps like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati and Sharad Pawar, as well, the floor managers of Congress may not find it difficult to pull off the T-Bill successfully before we go to 2014 polls,” asserted deputy Chief Minister, Damodar Raja Narasimha.

Similar view was expressed by TRS leader T. Harish Rao, according to whom the Telangana state was going to be as much a reality as the ushering of 2014. It has reached a stage where no national party can go back on their commitment, he added.

The ruling party bulldozing the efforts of six Seemandhra MPs to move no confidence motion in Lok Sabha and the BJP extending its  support by not insisting for the motion further added strength to the Telangana protagonists’ hopes. The champions of an united state from the ruling party initially pinned their hopes on President Pranab Mukherjee.

The Chief Minister even went to the extent of propagating that the President got the Bill modified and insisted for an amendment to Article 371 D with special majority of two thirds in Parliament and 50 per cent state legislatures.

Except for giving six weeks time to the state assembly to debate and send its views, the President did not even touch the draft Bill sent to him by the Centre. Interestingly, just a day before he began his Southern sojourn in Hyderabad, the President talked about the need for creating new states. On the other hand, two scenarios, one each on political and legal fronts, may emerge that may eventually lead to postponement of division.

The Telugu Desam and BJP electoral equation and intervention by the Supreme Court are the two developments that may slow down the division process if not totally nullify it. “Even the BJP national president Rajnath Singh openly expressed his view that the Bill has been prepared in haste and failed to address the concerns of people of Seemandhra” said Y. Ramakrish-nudu, veteran TD leader and leader of opposition in legislative council.

The TD leaders have been working overtime to impress the BJP national leadership on the need to put the Telangana state on hold. Series of meetings did take place among leaders of both parties and recently TD supremo N. Chandrababu Naidu hobnobbed with top notch BJP mandarins, including its Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, at the swearing in of Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

According to some TD leaders, Modi agreed with Chandrababu Naidu’s theory of equitable justice to both regions while another senior leader, Sushma Swaraj was keen on division before polls itself. “Modi is also of the view that the BJP can win considerable seats in Seemandhra by halting the division but may have few chances of doing so in Telangana even after supporting the T Bill, claimed a TD MP who was part of the negotiation process.

State BJP leaders, however, dismiss the contention and as party national secretary K. Laxman put it “the party may or may not strike prepoll alliance with other parties but there will be no going back on Telangana.” “Our national leadership has categorically said that it will support Bill any time it is introduced in Parliament,” he said.

The second possibility is judicial intervention. The anti-Telangana forces have already knocked the doors of the highest judicial body, the Supreme Court, against division. Besides the violation of conventions, the petitioners highlighted the opinions expressed by the Attorney General Vahnavathi and those of legal and legislative departments against crucial components of the Bill.

Maintaining that hopes on apex court’s intervention is very high, YSRC leader and former state financial adviser D.A. Somayajulu said, “The courts made crucial interventions in allocation of natural resources, Governor’s role, imposition of President’s rule and even transfer of bureaucrats. In this case, all conventions and precedents, the primary sources of strength for implementing Consti-tution, are violated.”

Next: Approaching polls to define local political climate

Approaching polls to define local political climate

The biggest event to look forward to on the political front in 2014 is the general elections to the Lok Sabha. Also , some state Assemblies, including Andhra Pradesh (and the new state of Telangana, if it is formed by then) will be going to the polls.

Stung by a slew of corruption cases and rising inflation, apart from the non-visibility of its Prime Minister that has created hype over rival prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance is not sure of its third franchise being successful.

The National Democratic Alliance, though skeletal after being ditched by loyal partners, is in search of new partners and is hoping that the Modi magic will help in returning the BJP-led coalition to power after a decade. The BJP’s performance in the recent Assembly elections has raised hopes.

Andhra Pradesh has played a decisive role in formation of governments at the Centre since 1999, when TD-BJP alliance did wonders in the state and paved smooth way for forming NDA government in New Delhi. The Congress gained substantially both in 2004 and 2009 when AP had the largest number of Congress MPs. The same state is now in turmoil.

“The TD has lost much of its credibility,” according to political analyst and MLC Prof K. Nageshwar. “In the Telangana region, the TD is seen as a Seemandhra party,” Nageshwar pointed out.
YSR Congress is afraid of losing strength in united Andhra once the state is bifurcated. Senior party leaders feel that Telangana is inevitable before 2014 polls unless some miracle happens.

“We have to rethink our strategy and go back to YSR’s legacy and his welfare initiatives as electoral slogan,” pointed out party adviser D.A. Somayajulu. The party, does not see any major threat in TD forging alliance with the BJP as people of Seemandhra hate both parties for facilitating the state division.

In Telangana, the TRS is under pressure to merge with the Congress. The party, however, is more inclined to pre-poll alliance rather than merger. “The Bill has several provisions that are not acceptable to us,” said senior TRS leader T. Harish Rao. TRS leaders believe that the party will emerge as a strong force and Telugu Desam will vanish from the political scenario.

BJP, according to its national secretary K. Lakshman, will grow as a formidable  force in T-region. The party believes that even parties like YSRC and TRS will support the Modi-led government at the Centre after the polls, and the party will improve its standing in Seemandhra in the long run.

Activist-writer Kancha Ilaiah says, “Gross miscalculation by the Congress saw a big threat in Jagan, but it failed to sense the bigger threat in BJP taking ultimate advantage of political turmoil.”
Lastly, there are widespread rumours that Chief Minister N. Kiran Kumar Reddy might float a new party along with Vijayawada MP L. Rajagopal and APNGOs state president P. Ashok Babu.

Kiran Kumar Reddy gained popularity as integrationist in Seemandhra region for openly defying party leadership. But the Centre proceeded with division formalities allegedly with the tacit support of Kiran Kumar Reddy.

“Kiran Kumar Reddy may attempt to make use of the vacuum in Seemandhra and establish a small force if not a force to reckon with,” said Prof Haragopal, noted social activist.