Weak monsoon may lead to another year of sub-five per cent growth
If there is normal monsoon India is likely to clock a GDP of 5.6 per cent in FY 2015
By : DC Correspondent
Update: 2014-03-24 20:45 GMT
New Delhi: India could face yet another year of sub 5 per cent growth, if monsoon are below normal this year, a Citigroup report says. According to the global financial services major, India is likely to clock a GDP growth of 5.6 per cent in FY15, provided there is normal monsoon and agri growth.
However, a "weak" or "bad" monsoon could lead to flattish or negative agri growth, lowering GDP to 5.1 per cent or 4.7 per cent, respectively, Citigroup said. "While admittedly trends in the SOI are volatile, given that a weak monsoon could result in yet another year of sub 5 per cent growth," the report added.
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) measures the development/intensity of an El Nino. El Nino (Spanish for 'boy') is a weather phenomenon that occurs every 2 to 7 years and causes major shifts in rainfall. It is characterised by higher surface temperatures in the Tropical Pacific Ocean and weaker trade winds.