Waiting Game: Imagining India after Modi

If the May 16 Lok Sabha verdict is along predicted lines, India could be headed for a busier-than-expected state election calendar later this year. In October a slew of major states — Maharashtra, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand and Haryana — are due to go to the people. With the weakening of the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar and the defections from the Congress to the Bharatiya Janata Party in Uttarakhand, both those state governments are vulnerable and could fall, leading to mid-term elections. Finally, Delhi will need to vote again sooner or later.

It may be too early, but it would be interesting nevertheless to speculate on this set of state elections. Obviously the BJP will be at an advantage, especially if it wins the Lok Sabha election and installs Narendra Modi as Prime Minister. This will give it a psychological advantage. The Congress will be on the backfoot. If it loses Haryana and Uttarakhand, if its alliance partner loses Jammu and Kashmir — and if the party does not win back Delhi — then in the north, the Congress will be running only Himachal Pradesh.

If it loses Maharashtra, it would be turfed out of a bastion it has governed for 15 years. With the expected reversals in Andhra Pradesh (or its two daughter states), this would deprive the Congress of a government in any state larger than Karnataka. These would be significant setbacks in what is turning out to be a forgettable year for the party.

Having said that, it is not as if the BJP is sitting pretty and can expect an automatic bonanza. These state elections will offer local, provincial challenges and the fact that Mr Modi is a popular all-India figure will help the BJP but cannot independently guarantee victory. Regional political forces will play a bigger role than they seem to be doing in the ongoing Lok Sabha campaign. Of course, if the BJP plays its cards right — and presuming it does as well in the Lok Sabha election as opinion pollsters suggest — then it could emerge with a much wider all-India footprint.

The one state where the BJP can be confident is Uttarakhand. The previous state election was lost very narrowly. The infighting in the Congress and the mess following the massive floods of 2013 have made the government unpopular. In a direct BJP-Congress fight, the BJP has an advantage, unless, like in the past, the party’s multiple chief ministerial aspirants become in-house saboteurs.

In Jharkhand and Bihar, the BJP will probably go with the knowledge that it has done well in the Lok Sabha election even without major alliance partners. However, it is a fair estimate that Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha-Prajatantrik (JVM-P) will be a far more formidable contender in an Assembly election. A possible mid-term election in Bihar could see the BJP fancying chances of winning a majority or at least a significant plurality, with Ram Vilas Paswan as an ally, and installing Sushil Modi as chief minister.

While this is a reasonable hope, the likelihood of Nitish Kumar being back in contention in a local election cannot be ruled out. If the Bihar unit of the BJP returns to caste-based civil war, then voters who are looking to back  Mr Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha election may switch to  Mr Kumar, only to keep the Rash-triya Janata Dal and Lalu Prasad Yadav out of power. There are other issues too. In Lok Sabha seats where the fight is between the BJP and the JD(U), Yadav voters are turning to the BJP. In an Assembly election, these Yadav voters could well return to Lalu Yadav..

In Maharashtra, there is no obvious and overwhelming chief ministerial face in the manner of Mr Modi’s candidature for the prime ministry. The state will have to be won seat by seat, booth by booth. Can the BJP-Shiv Sena combine do this without adding Raj Thackeray and his Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) to the alliance?

If the BJP does come to power in New Delhi in May, it will have to use its incremental clout to push the Shiv Sena into accepting this inevita-bility. Otherwise, the MNS will remain a lethal spoiler.

In Haryana, the Congress has its back to the wall. A Haryana Janhit Congress-BJP alliance could capitalise on non-Jat votes and win office. However, some of the deliberate errors injected into Lok Sabha candidate selection in the state will have to be guarded against. Here, like in Maharashtra, Mr Modi will need to use his new influence — should he become Prime Minister — to push and tweak the party organisation and decision making.

In Delhi, the Aam Aadmi Party fervour is milder than it was in December 2013, but the Lok Sabha election will tell us exactly how much AAP still matters. That apart, if Ajay Maken retains his New Delhi seat despite an overall urban backlash against the Congress, he gives his party a natural leader in the capital. As for the BJP, should Harsh Vardhan pull off a victory in a high-profile contest in Chandni Chowk, it will make him a robust name in Delhi politics and help in a possible chief ministerial projection. As such, the trajectory of the Delhi Assembly election could become clearer as early as May 16.

Finally, there is Jammu and Kashmir. In the Valley, the National Conference will battle a resurgent People’s Democratic Party (PDP) of Mufti Mohammed Sayeed. The BJP will attempt to make gains at the Congress’ expense in Jammu.

If a PDP government comes to office, with a BJP Prime Minister in New Delhi, the configuration that held out so much promise after the milestone state election of 2002 will be back. It could mark a new beginning for Jammu and Kashmir, provided the cross-border situation remains as placid as it has in recent years.

One way or the other, in state after state, that leaves us with a winter pregnant with possibilities.