Lok Sabha result holds key to Delhi poll

New Delhi: The Lok Sabha elections are over in Delhi and the city is now awaiting the Assembly elections, which had turned into a close contest between the BJP and the AAP in December. While the Congress, which got a humiliating defeat in the Assembly polls, is clearly aware of the voters’ mood and seems not in favour of early polls; the saffron party is eagerly awaiting the LS results, where it hopes to fare well. For the AAP, it’s a wait and watch stance for the party which had fared exceedingly well in the Assembly polls, but now feels the tide may have turned against it.

The AAP, which had stunned one and all by winning 28 of the 70 Assembly seats, had logged 29 per cent of the total vote share. But its nearest rival, BJP, which along with its ally Shiromani Akali Dal managed to win 32 seats, registered a vote share of 33.1 per cent, which was about three per cent less than what it had secured during the 2008 Assembly poll. The Congress, which was reduced to just eight seats, saw a dip of 15 per cent vote share than the previous Assembly poll.

Sensing that the public mood was in favour of the AAP, the Congress extended its outside support to the newbie party to form the government.

But the AAP government survived only for 49 days as party leader Arvind Kejriwal resigned for not getting support for his proposed anti-corruption Jan Lokpal Bill. Following the chief minister’s resignation, Lt. Gov. Najeeb Jung had placed the Assembly under suspended animation and the city was placed under the President’s Rule.

Mr Kejriwal challenged the President’s Rule in the Supreme Court, which asked the BJP and the Congress to explain whether the two could form the government. Both the parties had requested the apex court to take up the matter after LS elections, following which the matter was listed for April 17. At that time, the court had observed, “For the Jan Lokpal Bill, both the BJP and the Congress came together. It indicates that the Congress and the BJP can join hands and form the government…There are no personal enemies in politics. Today’s enemy’s can be tomorrow’s friend and best friend.”

With over 64 per cent voter turnout in the Lok Sabha, the three political outfits seem to be reworking on their strategy for the Assembly elections. The Congress leadership seems to be in no mood to go for an early Assembly poll. Spin doctors are of the view that the high voter turnout has always worked in favour of the BJP. As a section of the Muslim voters have gone with AAP, the Congress feels that its vote share in the Assembly elections may go down further. But the official stand of the Congress is that it is not afraid of any contest. “The matter is pending before the Hon’ble Supreme Court. We will  abide by the apex court’s verdict,” Delhi Congress spokesperson Mukesh Sharma told this newspaper.

But the BJP leadership, which is confident of winning a maximum number of the LS seats, wants to go for an early Assembly elections. A senior BJP leader said that the Modi wave which has swept the country would help the party to get more votes in the Assembly elections. “Once the LS elections are out, we will press for the Assembly polls,” he added. But Delhi BJP chief Harsh Vardhan had been maintaining that the party was ready to go for Assembly poll any time. “The matter is with the apex court.. But if  polls are held tomorrow,  we are going to sweep it,” a confident Dr Vardhan told this newspaper.

The AAP, which had been demanding early Assembly poll, seems to have adopted a wait and watch policy as the party fears it may have lost a large chunk of its middle-class voters in the LS elections. But the party is enthused over the way a section of the Muslims have voted for them. “In Assembly polls, Muslims did not vote for us. But in the LS elections, they supported us,” an AAP leader said. “But we want to see whether our vote share has increased in the parliamentary polls. If it has gone up, we will press for early state elections.” Legal experts said that the President’s Rule can continue for six months. “The President’s Rule can be extended only after getting a resolution passed by the Parliament,” senior lawyer K.T.S. Tulsi.

Constitutional expert Subhash Kashyap said that the fresh elections can be held only after the dissolution of the present house, which has been put under suspended animation. “Or fresh elections can be held only after the term of the present House expires.”