Foreign policy shift under Modi unlikely

 

There is naturally considerable curiosity about the BJP’s foreign policy orientation as it is pitching hard to lead the next government. The party’s foremost leader, Narendra Modi, who hopes to be Prime Minister, has made some nebulous statements in this direction, but these don’t finesse the discussion and may even give the impression of being inconsistent with the party’s earlier record.

 

Mr Modi has said in a general way that he would abide by the foreign policy of former Prime Minister Vajpayee. This certainly appears to have cut ice with Pakistan as Mr Vajpayee’s NDA government had pursued a path of dialogue with that neighbour in spite of Kargil and the hijacking of an Indian plane by Pakistan-based terrorists. China too has indicated it is assured by what it hears and has suggested it does not expect Indian policy towards it to change much under a Modi government.

 

Nevertheless, the nuclear stance struck in the BJP manifesto has produced a degree of speculative anarchy as it does not go along with Mr Vajpayee’s policy (which was pursued by the Manmohan Singh government in this regard). When the Vajpayee government went overtly nuclear, it declared its doctrine as being one of “no-first use”. The current BJP poll manifesto has, however, hinted at a possible modification of the nuclear doctrine in the light of current geopolitical realities.

 

Domain experts in government and outside do not see how any meaningful change can be effected. To change the nuclear doctrine is not merely a matter of making textual alterations. A pro-first use stance, as distinct from the present no-first use formulation, calls for vastly refurbishing and expanding nuclear delivery systems, and greatly enhancing the country’s missile capability in a relatively short period of time, so that a credible deterrence-plus posture can be made operational. Conventional force structures and the country’s military doctrine will also be impacted.

 

To pursue an altered nuclear agenda calls for extraordinarily high expenditure. This is unlikely to be available in the foreseeable future if other sectors of defence are not to run out of money. The further complexity is that foreign relations will likely become difficult to manage as suspicions are apt to become endemic regarding this country’s intentions all around. The BJP manifesto and Mr Modi personally are silent on matters like these.

 

The best one can say for now is that Mr Modi’s policy planners have not yet done their sums and that significant foreign policy changes look unlikely.