70 per cent chance of El Nino later this year, says expert

Hyderabad: The Southwest monsoon this year has been delayed by 10 days. Meteorological officials have predicted that the monsoon will hit parts of the Andhra coast on June 18 and the total rainfall has been predicted at 93 per cent of the normal rainfall in the region. Heavy rainfall can be expected only after June 18.

“The cyclonic storm at the Arabian sea affected the course of the monsoon. There was confusion whether it will proceed towards India, or shift towards Oman and Saudi Arabia. The cyclonic storm took away all the moisture creating extreme dry conditions. It has now, however, degraded into a low pressure. This circulation over Northeast Bay of Bengal may move to Odisha and the system may advance into Odisha and Bihar. However, there still is a doubt regarding its onset,” said K. Seetharam, director of Hyderabad Meteorological Centre.

He also said that El Nino has a lot to do with the total amount of rainfall.

“All the deficit rainfall years are definitely coinciding with the high El Nino years. Though all El Nino years are not dry years, but going by the models we have, most of the El Nino years are ‘deficit’ years. Though till today the conditions are neutral, based on the available data and models, there is 70 per cent chance of El Nino development in October. So far upto May there is no El Nino,” Mr  Seetharam said.