Periscope: Trial by fire

It was believed by strategic experts that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s reputation as a no-nonsense and decisive leader would be tested soon by Pakistan and China. On June 29, a series of media reported events indicated that the expected trial by fire was greater than anticipated. While Indian vice-president Hamid Ansari was in Beijing to mark the 60th anniversary of the Panchsheel Agreement, China produced a map showing Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh as Chinese territory, and its Army boats made aggressive forays to the Indian side of the disputed Pangong lake in Ladakh. On the same day, Pakistani troops opened fire across the Line of Control in Kashmir.

More ominously, the ISIS’ (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) Sunni Arab fighters seized large parts of Iraq. Media reports indicate that the ISIS was indirectly created and funded, armed and supported by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and the West (essentially the US, France and the UK). In 2011, these very nations took the decision to engineer a “regime change” in Libya, leaving the oil-rich nation in chaos and have also been engaged in “regime change” operations in Syria. America-supplied arms for the “moderate rebels” in Syria have apparently found their way to the ISIS.

India had sailed a warship, INS Mysore, to the Persian Gulf to be on a standby for assistance to 18,000 Indians stranded in Iraq, though many have started leaving Iraq on various airlines.

On June 29, the ISIS released an audio message that its chief “Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was the caliph of the newly formed ‘Islamic State’” (i.e. territories seized by the ISIS in Syria and Iraq) and the “leader of Muslims everywhere”, and called for a jihad in various countries, including India, Pakistan and China. Presently, Iraq is headed for a possible three-way partition — Sunni non-Arab Kurds in the north, Sunni Arabs in the west and Shia Arabs in the south. The impact on India’s oil imports due to possible disruption of Iraqi oil supplies may be disastrous, as 13.2 per cent of our oil imports are from Iraq (70 per cent of our total oil imports are from West Asia). Petrol and diesel prices rose on July 1, as a result of this ongoing crisis.

The West should be worried that the ISIS has in its ranks a large number of young, Western jihadis who will return home to start terrorist activities in Europe and the US. India, too, should be worried, as the first India-born ISIS jihadi in Iraq (38-year-old Fakkurudin Usman Ali who is now a citizen of Singapore), has an Interpol lookout circular.

In the southern Helmand Province of Afghanistan, the Taliban has taken advantage of the withdrawal of American combat troops and begun a major offensive against the ill-prepared Afghan military. It is possible that Afghanistan will fall to the Taliban soon after the total withdrawal of the American military in 2016. No wonder, an Al Qaeda video on June 29 suggested that it would soon target Kashmir for the next phase of its jihad.

Tensions continue to run high in the South and East China Seas, with China flexing its naval muscle to try and enforce its territorial claims. India, 50 per cent of whose sea-borne trade passes through these waters, has a crucial interest in ensuring that freedom of marine navigation in these waters is not jeopardised by China.

The new government, which apparently inherited empty coffers, has to take many hard decisions to kickstart the economy, improve homeland secu-rity and also our defence capability.

Unfortunately, even if money was miraculously found for the forthcoming Budget, and the defence budget of $46 billion was dramatically increased from its present 1.7 per cent of the gross domestic product, the fact remains that India would still need time till at least 2024 to enhance its military and homeland security capabi-lity to the levels needed to counter the new threats. Hence, to provide the best possible security in the interim, the government needs to consider the following:

w Set up an in-house committee of experts for Strategic Defence Review (SDR), to take a holistic view of India’s economy, along with capabilities needed to meet external and internal challenges. This SDR committee should, by October 31, 2014, suggest a way forward, including new anti-terror legislation, and seamless information sharing between all security and intelligence agencies.

This SDR should be done every five years with every new government taking over (as is done in the US, the UK, etc.) and replace the current practice of the defence minister issuing a cryptic one page “RM’s directive” (prepared by the defence secretary) based on which the military prepares to meet threats, and their is little connection with the home ministry’s turf.

w Set up in-house expert committee for Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), to review the existing, 2003 vintage, Indian nuclear doctrine of “no first use” (to make it relevant to the new threat environment), and also to review the system of command and control along with the total number of nuclear weapons and delivery systems needed to deter any aggressive designs of our two nuclear-armed neighbours. This proposed NPR committee should submit its report by September 30, 2014, and meet every five years.

On the diplomatic front, India needs to have close ties with nations which are either strategically located, or suppliers of energy or technology and armaments i.e. Russia, the US, Japan, Vietnam, Singapore, Israel, South Africa, Indonesia, Australia and West Asia. India will also need to do a fine balancing act while trading with China and accepting Chinese foreign direct investment, and simultaneously preparing to deter Chinese aggression.

Finally, Mr Modi, already facing a poor monsoon and rising onion prices, will need to balance the Budget between economic growth and national security, while being mindful of the fact that the public may not be willing to “swallow bitter pills”, as evidenced by the recent agitation against the rail fare hike.

The writer retired as Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Eastern Naval Command, Visakhapatnam