A growling Asian tiger

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has passed his first test in participating in a multilateral summit. Obviously, getting each of the Brics nations an equal say in the new development bank and obtaining the presidency for India while China gets its headquarters are benchmarks of a new assertive policy.

But beyond Brics, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, and its new bank, interpreted by much of the world as more of a geopolitical than a pure economic decision, the Prime Minister’s first meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping could overshadow the bank decision. It holds the tantalising prospect of a new era in relations between the two countries.

Apart from the rhetoric emanating from the meeting — President Xi was quoted as saying “when India and China meet, the world watches us” — there was a significant gesture in inviting Mr Modi to the next Apec (Asia Pacific for Economic Cooperation) conference probably in November, an organisation India has been seeking to enter.

The elephant in the room was the long-standing border dispute, with the official Chinese news agency alluding to a “reasonable mutually acceptable solution to their border issues at an early date”. Since Chinese policy over the past decades has been to kick the problem down the road, the new formulation represents a change.

There have been other Chinese pointers to a less antagonist policy towards India after Mr Modi’s ascent to power on the strength of his party’s absolute majority in the Lok Sabha, a unique feat in several decades. Beijing was the first to send a senior official after the Bharatiya Janata Party won as a representative of his President. The purpose was to form a new basis for a troubled relationship. In his remarks to the joint delegation meeting of the two countries in Brazil, Mr Modi acknowledged the gesture.

What we have been witnessing in Brazil is foreplay as India and China feel each other for a new basis of relationship that could have immense consequences for the region and the world. First, Beijing recognises that Mr Modi does not suffer from the limitations of the preceding Manmohan Singh government, that he is a decisive figure and an unabashed admirer of Chinese — and Japanese — economic progress.

Second, there is unease in China over Mr Modi’s love for Japanese technology and progress and although Mr Modi’s first visit to Tokyo after assuming office was aborted at the last minute, Beijing is in something of a competition with Japan in seeking New Delhi’s favours.

Third, the Prime Minister’s affinity with the American way of doing things is well known, despite the visa ban now superseded by an invitation by President Barrack Obama to meet him in the White House in September. Since China is the new emerging world power, it is bound to collide with the established power of the United States and would not like New Delhi to move too close to Washington.

Merely to suggest these possibilities is to enumerate the earth-shaking consequences of a possible entente between the two Asian giants, one recognised as a world power and the other aspiring to be one. The obvious question to ask is how sincere China is in its overtures. Besides, as new border incursions show, is the Chinese leadership united?
The assumption in New Delhi is that President Xi has consolidated his power in a remarkably short time and can carry his fellow leaders with him if he decides to begin a new chapter with India. We shall know of Mr Xi’s intentions in greater detail when he pays his expected official visit to India in September.

Indeed, the traffic between India and China has increased dramatically, first with the visit to Delhi of President Xi’s emissary, vice-president Hamid Ansari’s trip to China as well as that of the Army Chief, General Bikram Singh. Mr Modi’s own tweet after meeting Mr Xi was that it was a “very fruitful meeting”, diplomatese for a good session.

Highlighting the India-China relationship in the Brics summit is only one aspect of the world taking notice of the dramatic change of government in New Delhi. There seems to be a recognition that the new dispensation is less handicapped and more decisive and can therefore deliver in a greater measure what it promises. In effect, therefore, New Delhi’s responsibilities in balancing relationships with important countries have greatly increased.

In one false move, the external affairs minister, Ms Sushma Swaraj, struck the wrong note by initially shunning a discussion on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in Parliament as if she were afraid of her own shadow. Perhaps the traditional bias the BJP has in favour of Israel was a factor. On a larger scale, New Delhi has to balance and keep in perspective its possible new opening with China with important relationships with the US, Russia, and the European Union, apart from its challenging interactions with Pakistan.

Sino-Indian relations have had a tempestuous history as we look to the future. There was the Bhai-Bhai phase, the somewhat romantic concept of a joint Asian renaissance favoured by Jawaharlal Nehru, the Panchsheel Beijing is reviving, the disastrous border war in 1962 in which India was routed and largely frozen relations for decades. There have subsequently been 17 rounds of talks between the two countries’ special representatives. Mr Modi has now called for strengthening mutual trust and confidence while maintaining tranquillity along the border.

India cannot remain a prisoner of the past and must reorient its policies reflecting a changing world. China is important because it forms a large part of the new scenario. A new world is emerging in India’s immediate vicinity and in Asia. While Beijing seeks to enhance its power and influence, Japan is emerging from the shadows of its post-war economic miracle to stake its claim for a share of the cake. Sino-Japanese rivalry is a staple of today’s equations.

Despite some disadvantages, India has many cards to play and must play them skilfully. Mr Modi has a lot going for him if he proves equal to the task.