Contours of a new Cold War

While the tug of war over the downing of the Malaysian plane over troubled Ukraine continues against the background of the carnage in Gaza, the contours of a new Cold War are emerging. The manner in which Western Prime Ministers, including those of Britain and the Netherlands, are lecturing Russia’s President Vladimir Putin must surely rank as a new low in relations between Moscow and the West.

There is admittedly justifiable rage over the downing of a passenger plane leading to the deaths of nearly 300, almost 200 of them Dutch, but the alleged perpetrators of this terrible act, Russian-supported Ukrainian rebels, have been transformed into an East-West tussle. In Western eyes, President Putin is in the dock for supporting and provisioning these rebels. US sanctions against Russia have been tightened and the old Cold War logic is being unveiled.

Behind these moves is the simple fact that for the West, absorbing Ukraine into the European Union and the Western camp is a priority because after the break-up of the Soviet Union, Russia is dismissed by Washington as a regional power. By the same token, Moscow is resisting the diminution of its status and among the many complications is the fact that Ukraine is a divided nation, with roughly half the population original Russian-speakers and deeply attached to Mother Russia.

Russia failed to sign up Ukraine for its eastern economic initiative essentially to keep its traditional influence intact. The attractions of the bright lights of the West for the western half of Ukraine were simply too great, as they proved to be for other once Communist-ruled East European countries. Apart from a starkly divided nation and the zeal of the European Union to integrate it, the West did not pay attention to the legitimate geo-political interests of Russia vis-à-vis the huge land mass of 45 million people on the Russian border.

One consequence of the Russian assertion of its interest was the incorporation of the Crimean peninsula, the home of the Russian fleet, into the federation. And in assisting Ukrainian rebels, Moscow was making two points. A new Ukrainian Constitution must give wide autonomy to the regions and Ukraine becoming a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was a no-go area.

Who brought down the Malaysian plane is still a matter of speculation although Western accusing fingers are being pointed at the Russian-supported rebels. But from Moscow’s perspective, things have got out of hand and President Putin has now to factor in the new rage in the West while ensuring his country’s vital interests.

What is being attempted now is some kind of truce on the issue, but there is little prospect of an end to the wider conflict between a West manoeuvring Russia into a corner as a regional power in league with Turkey and Moscow’s assertion of its interests as it sees it.

The United States, for one, is hobbled by its Israel baggage, as was apparent by the new Israeli-Palestinian conflict leading to a virtual carnage of Palestinian civilians. The United States has been keeping all mediation between the warring powers — one an occupier and the other the occupied — under its wing, with the UN Security Council powerless by the use of the American veto.

The right-wing government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in no mood to make real concessions, reinforced as it is by the most modern American military equipment and a hefty annual subvention. In fact, it is open to question whether a two-state solution, the mantra of the international community, is at all possible. The inevitable prospect, therefore, is millions of people bottled into a highly crowded Gaza Strip policed by Israel on land, in the air and at sea and millions of others living as second class citizens in Israel.

The only country that can change this situation is the United States, but the Washington establishment is answerable to the powerful American Jewish lobby and American legislators are in hock to the Jewish influentials in winning their seats. It was no surprise that even as the death toll of Palestinian civilians was mounting by the hour as a result of the Israeli onslaught, the one mantra of US leaders from the President and secretary of state down was that Israel had the right to defend itself from Hamas-fired rockets.

There will be a ceasefire; the UN Security Council has called for one. But there is no early move to resolve a crisis at the heart of which is a simple problem. Israel does not want to give up the land it has occupied and colonised. The three abducted and murdered Israeli teenagers lived in the occupied territories and the extraordinary Israeli Army’s move to comb the West Bank and Palestinians’ habitations and arrest more than 500 Palestinians was a precursor of what was to follow.

The Netanyahu government was uncomfortable with the formation of a Fatah-Hamas unity government and broke off the sham negotiations. But by conducting bombing runs over Gaza and invading the territory, the Israeli Prime Minister has set in train a chain of events that will further complicate an already complicated picture.

Where do the West and Russia go from here? Will the new trend of name-calling lead to an inevitable Cold War-like freeze? The two crises are inter-connected in as much as one feeds on the other in reinforcing suspicions on the two sides. Will the United States reassess its view that Russia is a mere regional power of little consequence in running the affairs of the world? Will Europe, newly enraged by the bringing down of the Malaysian Airline plane, become more compliant with the American agenda on suppressing Russia?

These questions are connected with how and when the shooting war in Gaza stops and how far the Ukrainian rebels continue to cooperate with the international teams in solving the puzzle of the downing of the Malaysian aircraft. But the larger problems demand answers.