For Sena and BJP, an existential dilemma

The tussle on view between the Shiv Sena and BJP is, in a sense, the classical conflict between the regional and the central, or national. In Maharashtra, the Sena was traditionally the more influential partner. But it has been clear for some time that the influence of the BJP — also at the expense of the Sena, it must be said — has grown.

After the Assembly election of 2009, when the BJP won one more seat than the Shiv Sena, there could be little doubt that the BJP’s ambition would soar all the more. This is the phase the two parties find themselves in on the eve of the Assembly election due in mid-October. For the Sena and the BJP both, what they confront is an existential dilemma. With the arrival on the scene of Narendra Modi, who first became a phenomenon and then proceeded to bag the post of Prime Minister, the BJP thinks it has a rightful claim to give Maharashtra its next chief minister (since it also won more Lok Sabha seats than the Sena).

The BJP thinks this way even though it lost its most valuable party leader in the state, Gopinath Munde, in a road accident just after the formation of the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre, and the party has no one of a trans-Maharashtra stature to fill the CM’s shoes. The Sena is apt to think, on the other hand, that if it is obliged to cede ground to ally BJP, which may now be fancying itself as the senior of the two allies, it might be condemned to live in the BJP’s shadow for a long time to come. In that case, Uddhav Thackeray, who succeeded his charismatic father Bal Thackeray, a towering political personality, as the Sena supremo, may just wither on the vine.

Thus, there is a tussle on — first for the number of seats each ally will contest, and then for the CM’s position. (It is widely thought that the Congress-NCP alliance, now in power, may suffer the backlash of anti-incumbency of 15 years.)

Union minister Nitin Gadkari is said to be eyeing the Chief Minister’s post since there is no stalwart BJP leader in the state. Will Mr Modi be persuaded to let him leave the Union Cabinet, for a strong CM can become a universe unto himself, apart from the orbit of the PM? Another noteworthy element of the intra-BJP power dynamics is the statewide tour of the late Munde’s MLA daughter. Is she positioning herself as CM candidate? Or, is she being put up to her current activities by anti-Gadkari factions in the state?

There are clearly wheels within wheels on the BJP side, as well as within the alliance which it thinks it is now entitled to lead. Resolutions of such turmoil are not usually painless.