The anatomy of failed relationships

It has been a bout of haggling the likes of which are rarely seen outside of saree shops and fish markets, but it didn't end like haggling in the fish markets and saree shops does. There, the prospective customer makes a show of walking away, the seller calls the person back, and eventually, they strike a deal and the story ends happily for all except the fish.

In the bargaining over seats they would contest in the coming Maharashtra assembly polls between the Shiv Sena and the BJP on one hand, and their rivals NCP and Congress on the other, no such denouement is possible any longer. The breakdown of the alliances has been made public, and with it, the bargaining has come to an end.

It is now down to electoral battle between old allies.

Who is to be blamed for these failed relationships? As with most failed relationships, it’s difficult to say.

The rumbling between the Shiv Sena and the BJP started immediately after the Lok Sabha results. The massive victory for the BJP, and the fact that it won 23 seats out of 24 it contested - as opposed to 18 out of 20 for the Shiv Sena -  buoyed the ambitions of the BJP's state leaders. The party had won 46 of 119 assembly seats it contested in 2009, compared to 44 of 169 for Sena, and this also added to their confidence.

They no longer wanted to play second fiddle to the Shiv Sena, and saw no compelling need to do so with Balasaheb Thackeray no longer on the scene.

Their demand for an equal share of 144 seats each in the 288 member assembly was therefore a serious one. However, it came within days of a perceived setback for the BJP in the bypolls in four states, where the party fared badly. This may have contributed to Uddhav Thackeray's confidence that the BJP could be browbeaten into settling for its old share of 119 seats. That proved to be an incorrect assessment.

The breakup, in the end, wasn’t over the difference of four or five seats between what was being offered and what was publicly sought. It was about who would be the big daddy in the partnership. The BJP sees this as a chance to overturn the 'traditional' order and come out as the single largest party in Maharashtra.

Their calculations would be based on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the potential for growth in pockets where they were kept from contesting seats by the limitations of coalition politics. They would expect Raj Thackeray and the MNS to neutralize the Shiv Sena to a degree, leaving them with an advantage.

They would also hope to reap the benefits of voters who would want to vote against the incumbent Congress NCP government, which was in power for the past 15 years.

That may happen, but to what degree is difficult to foresee. The NCP has pulled the plug on the Congress at the last moment and can be expected to heap all blame for all ills of the past 15 years on its now former ally.

NCP has its traditional strongholds, where it is still the party to beat. In Western Maharashtra, it can be expected to remain the biggest party. The BJP would expect to do well in Vidarbha and north Maharashtra, and parts of Marathwada. The Shiv Sena would expect to do well in Thane and Mumbai, and win seats in all regions. The Congress can pick up scattered seats all over the state.

There would also be the MNS factor in several pockets. The MIM of the Owaisi brothers is also in the fray for the first time, and is likely to have some impact in pockets with large Muslim populations. In addition, there are the smaller partners of the BJP and Sena who have their own areas of influence.

It is already clear that the Congress will try and project the BJP, which has two Gujaratis at the top, as outsiders. So too will the Shiv Sena; their politics is about being the party of the local Marathi manoos.

The BJP’s expectations of emerging as the single largest party will have to contend with that. At the moment, with so many players in the game, it is impossible to predict which way the cookie might crumble.

Only this much is certain: the old order is gone. The chances of Mangalyaan finding Martians are higher than the chances of Maharashtra finding the same characters back in the same roles.