Maharashtra: With 2 recent divorces, bed set for stranger partners?

Mumbai: September 25 witnessed an end in the pre-poll coalition politics in the state of Maharashtra. The political impasse over seat-sharing between the major parties in the State led to the split of two major alliances.

Shiv Sena and Bharatiya Janata Party ended their 25-year-old alliance due to Sena’s adamant stand on their proposed formula – Shiv Sena (151), BJP (123) and other parties (14).  Whereas, BJP wanted to contest with (127) seats, Shiv Sena (147) and (14) for other parties. The parties are eying to wrest the state politics and install a Chief Minister of their own party. These differences were responsible for the split.

Read: Saffron collapse: Shiv Sena, BJP break up after 25 years

Interestingly, an hour after the official announcement of the Shiv Sena-BJP split, NCP declared in a press conference of going it alone. The NCP’s initial demand of 124 seats was rejected by the Congress. Also, NCP Chief Sharad Pawar and Congress President Sonia Gandhi were nowhere present in the scene. NCP leader Sunil Tatkare on Thursday said how in the 15 years of alliance, the Chief Minister was always chosen from the Congress and NCP never got a chance. The rotation of Chief ministership as well as the demand of contesting with a 50-50 seat sharing formula didn’t go down well with the Congress leading to the split.

Read: After BJP-Shiv Sena divorce, NCP snaps 15-year alliance with Congress

Speaking of the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance, it is not the first time the parties are headed for a split. Back in 1984, the alliance was formed due to the instrumental role of BJP’s Pramod Mahajan. Pramod Mahajan was known for sharing a good rapport with Bal Thackeray and “Matoshree”. Also, the common ideology of ‘Hindutva’ acted as a catalyst for the alliance.  The alliance fought the Lok Sabha elections but failed to make a mark. Rajiv Gandhi swept the elections gaining sympathy votes post Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s assassination. BJP and Shiv Sena parted ways. It is said that BJP had turned towards Sharad Pawar, who was then working with Congress. Balasaheb Thackeray had even publicly mentioned about BJP’s ‘close association’ with Sharad Pawar. 

In 1989, Pramod Mahajan again pushed for the alliance with Shiv Sena despite facing opposition from within the BJP party. The Sena’s capture over Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation’s election and dominance over state politics also played a major role in reforming the alliance. Even Uddhav Thackeray had publicly mentioned that the senior leaders, hinting on Pramod Mahajan and Gopinath Munde, could have negotiated and resolved the issue, had they been alive, since they shared an excellent rapport with ‘Matoshree’. 

Both Sena and Congress have cited the close timings of announcement of respective splits by BJP and NCP as possible underhand deal between the two parties. Chief Minister Chavan also hinted towards this possibility.

Hence this gives a hint of a possible post-poll alliance between BJP and NCP. The breaking of the ties of all the four parties at the same time gives rise to speculation of internal party talks. AICC media department Chairman Ajay Maken had earlier on Friday accused NCP of cheating with BJP.

BJP President Amit Shah, the man instrumental in BJP’s lanslide victory in Lok Sabha elections, however had canceled the meeting twice with Shiv Sena at the crucial time. Their firm stance of not letting Shiv Sena taking the lead, BJP has taken a calculated risk of going it alone that might turn in their favour.

Another angle to the post-poll alliance can be, the role of Raj Thackeray and his party Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). Raj Thackeray had made it clear in a TV interview that he may be against BJP but he is pro Modi. Also, BJP leader Nitin Gadkari is known for sharing an excellent rapport with Raj Thackeray. Gadkari had even proposed that Raj Thackeray to pull out from the Lok Sabha. Although MNS may stand a thin chance of winning more seats, there may be a chance of Raj Thackeray forming the alliance for Modi.

This will be a multi-cornered election that can result in reshuffling of the power game of Maharashtra state politics. With Shiv Sena mouthpiece Samna’s editorial calling BJP an ‘enemy of Maharashtra’ and signaling a return to its original pro-marathi agenda, chances are thin for a post-poll alliance between Shiv Sena and BJP. Don’t be surprised if you see a three-way post-poll alliance between BJP-NCP-MNS, since the equations of the state politics have already changed.