Tamil Nadu CM Jayalalithaa’s conviction: Legally down but not politically out

Chennai: Can the Iron lady of Tamil Nadu bounce back from the stifling walls of the Bangalore prison?  Does the AIADMK supremo’s conviction and imprisonment signal the end of her three-decade meteoric political career? Having seen her bounce back so many times in the past – she is reported to have fought off 14 cases – no one is discounting her as a political force, least of all her party men and her legion of fans.

The worry is over the future of her party if she is to stay out of elections for the next 10 years. Will the AIADMK brave the legal typhoon and remain the political numero uno in Tamil Nadu? As nuggets of the crucial verdict trickled out from Bangalore, a debate over the future of the AIADMK raged across television channels and living rooms across the country.

Read: After Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa’s conviction, who will take over next?

“What if the court has given its verdict against Amma? The verdict of the people of Tamil Nadu is always in our favour and will always be in our favour,” said a former AIADMK MLA S.C.Venkatachalam, who was arrested for leading a protest against the court order.  That sums up the defining hope and the destiny of the AIADMK.  “Amma is an unshakeable force. This is not the end of the legal recourse. She can go in appeal and she will come back as Chief Minister,” asserts K.S.Sathish Kumar, AIADMK ‘s Salem district Illaignar and Illampengal Paasarai (forum of young men and women).

The AIADMK cadre are confident that Amma’s imprisonment will get them a wellspring of sympathy votes in the 2016 Assembly elections. For DMK’s role in 2 G scam is still not forgotten and Karunanidhi knows he is ill-equipped to turn corruption into a poll issue. The AIADMK, which garnered 44.3 per cent vote share (and a whopping 1,79,83168 voters against DMK’s 24 per cent ) in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, may be legally down, but far from politically out.

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In Tamil Nadu, almost all Dravidian politicians mouth this famous line when trapped in a crisis: “People’s verdict is God’s verdict”. And Jayalalithaa and her party faithful will wait patiently for the people’s verdict in 2016. Among the AIADMK’s political assets are an MGR votebank which is not eroded and an emotionally charged women electorate – both being captive vote banks swayed more by dripping emotions than dry economics.  And if the Opposition DMK hopes to draw political mileage from the court verdict, it has to combat the huge “emotional quotient” of the Tamil Nadu voters.

Past events point to remarkable comeback

Jayalalithaa also has the charisma, steely nerves and adroitness to turn her political troughs in the last 25 years into a massive crest of sympathy and awe.  When her political mentor MGR died in 1987, she was pushed off the bier in full public view. The rude shove did not go unnoticed by core AIADMK voters- women - and she drew sighs of sympathy. Her AIADMK (J) faction emerged triumphant in more seats than the Congress in Tamil Nadu.

Read: Saffron brigade senses an opportunity to rise in Tamil Nadu

In 1989, when her saree was pulled in the Assembly during the then Karunanidhi regime, there was an outpouring of sympathy. Riding on the sympathy wave of the Rajiv Gandhi assassination, she took over the Chief Ministerial mantle of Tamil Nadu.

Dogged by corruption charges, she lost power in one of the worst routs for AIADMK in 1996. While it took DMK supremo M.Karunanidhi 16 years to come back to power after his 1974 rout, for Jayalalithaa just two years were adequate to make a sensational bounce-back. Her imprisonment in 1996 in the colour TV scandal case did not alienate her voters, instead it won her a fresh wave of sympathy.

Read: Jayalalithaa verdict: Self-immolation bids, violence rock state

And in the 1998 Parliamentary elections, she wove a grand political weft and re-emerged a political force in Tamil Nadu. Then came another legal blow in 2001 as she was barred from contesting the elections because she had been convicted in corruption cases. Yet again, the sympathy factor played out in her favour as she became the Chief Minister again.

Barely a year later, another political cyclone struck the AIADMK as Supreme Court declared that Jayalalithaa cannot continue as Chief Minister. Appointing a first-time minister as the Chief Minister, she ran the government by proxy. In 2006, she lost power once again, but marched back to Fort St.George with a massive mandate in 2011. Will she stage another remarkable comeback in her career as a politician?