Pakistan’s mortar strategy won’t work

Tension on the India-Pakistan border has been rising since last Sunday night, and by Thursday the entire 192-km stretch of the International Border in the Jammu region came under mortar fire from the Pakistan side. Civilian casualties have clearly occurred on both sides since India’s border defence personnel have not stinted in their retaliation. On the Indian side, officials say that some 30,000 villagers living in the proximity of the border have had to be moved to safer locations. All in all, a most unfortunate situation has arisen. These are signs that a sectarian view of the India-Pakistan equation is coming to prevail on the Pakistani side. The authorities in Islamabad will do well to de-escalate the tension.

Their political motives are unclear, but Pakistan simply cannot hope to gain from a stand-off of this nature. At best, from the viewpoint of the Pakistan establishment, the military would have completely eclipsed the civilian authority of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and this would continue to be the case long after the tension ebbs. Which means the democratic dispensation in Pakistan is under severe strain. This cannot be good news for the people of that country who have elected a government.

The silver lining so far is that Pakistan hasn’t moved from mortars to heavier artillery guns. If that occurs, we will have a full-fledged skirmish on. Indeed, if that’s the situation Pakistan is seeking to bring about in the hope of internationalising the Kashmir problem, Islamabad should rest assured that response will not be lacking from the Indian side.

Pakistan may wish to seek to play on Western fears of an armed flare-up between nuclear-armed neighbours to find a window of opportunity for re-inserting the leading Western powers into the Kashmir imbroglio. On this count too, it may find its hopes are not realised. However the same may not be the case with China. India-China relations do not appear to be in good repair in spite of the visit of President Xi Jinping here last month and his feting by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. What is evident is that equations with both Pakistan and China look to be disturbed at the same time, just the situation our government should have sought to pre-empt.  The strong language used by defence minister Arun Jaitley and by the PM are sometimes needed, but means of de-escalating should always be kept in view.