Make or break for 4 Maharashtra players

The 2014 Maharashtra Assembly elections could prove decisive for the Shiv Sena and NCP, the two regional parties that have dictated terms with the national parties, the BJP and the Congress, till date. Experts and political observers feel that after the polls, the Shiv Sena will have to either accept a secondary role in the saffron alliance or play the role of the main Opposition party in the state. However, the picture is grimmer for the NCP, which could become irrelevant unless it wins few seats more than its former partner Congress.

Various opinion polls announced so far have projected that the BJP will emerge as the single-largest party in the 288-member Assembly. The party is projected to get between 96 and 154 seats by various surveys. The same surveys have predicted that the Sena will win from 47 to 68 seats and the Congress will get 25 to 46 seats.

Political commentator Abhay Deshpande says the BJP will need the Sena’s support to form government if it cannot win more than 125. “It seems that the BJP will lead the next government. But a lot depends on whether they cross the majority mark or how close they get to the majority. If it gets more than 125 seats, it can form the government with help of independents, smaller parties and even the MNS. If the BJP is restricted below 125 seats, it will need the Sena’s support. Both parties can come together on Hindutva without having to give more explanations to voters,” Mr Deshpande said.

Experts say irrespective of whether the Sena joins the government or not, it will remain an important player. It will be the second largest party and thus will have to play the role of the main Opposition party. A Sena leader says, “We are confident of doing lot better than what the opinion polls are suggesting. According to our assessment, the Sena will be the single largest party. But even if we have to sit in the Opposition, we will play the role of an aggressive Opposition. It is the general rule that when the ruling party fails, it is the main opposition party that occupies the position of the ruling party. Therefore, it is not that the Shiv Sena is losing all in the election.”

Mr Deshpande agrees that the Sena may not be as effective as the Congress. “The party does not have experienced and aggressive leaders. The Congress has someone like Narayan Rane, who has been chief minister and a very effective and aggressive Opposition leader. Even if the Congress wins fewer seats than the Sena, it will be more assertive,” he says.

The NCP will be contesting the election for its survival. The Sharad Pawar-led party has been projected to end up fourth with a significantly lower number of MLAs. Dr Jose George, head of department of civics and political science, Mumbai University, said, “The current situation of a multi-cornered contest is benefiting the BJP and the Sena. There will be maximum mobilisation of the votes of these two parties. All other parties are at the disadvantage. In cities, Marathi manoos votes will be consolidated in favour of the Sena while the BJP’s non-Marathi Hindu votes will consolidate. The BJP can mobilise pro-Vidarbha votes, while Shiv Sena will get anti-statehood votes.”

According to his analysis, the BJP and the Sena have split to decide who is the “big brother”. “This election will clearly decide who is the number one. When Balasaheb Thackeray was alive, the BJP did not have the guts to bargain with it. Uddhav is not as assertive as Balasaheb and the BJP is in the position to bargain. Both parties will come together after the election with clearly defined roles,” he said.