Has cricket peaked?

Economists and pessimists — some would say the words are interchangeable — have long debated the concept of “peak oil”. This refers to the point at which the rate of extraction of oil from all known sources reaches its highest level. After that the rate of extraction can only decline. Of course, it will be many, many years from “peak oil” to a moment when the world runs out of oil. Nevertheless a hump would have been crossed. It is tempting to ask whether sports commerce, at least sports commerce in India, is at a similar inflection point, and if we have reached a moment that may be termed “peak cricket”.

This may sound irrational and absurd. Cricket remains the most popular sport in India and that position is not being threatened for a long, long time. The International Cricket Council (ICC) has just announced a deal with Rupert Murdoch’s Star group for telecast of international limited-overs cricket tournaments from 2015 to 2023. No numbers have been revealed but it is believed (or rumoured) that a commitment of about $2 billion has been made. If true, this would be the biggest such deal the ICC has signed. Star is clearly betting on continued fan interest in India, cricket’s largest, most lucrative market.

Yet, just as “peak oil” does not mean the world will stop using oil the following morning, “peak cricket” does not denote an immediate and precipitous drop in viewership or endorsements. One is talking about a long-term process. Admittedly, the evidence for “peak cricket” is thin, as so much of the cricket economy is undocumented and dependent on anecdotal evidence as well as subjectivity.

Even so TRP numbers point to a trend. Cricket viewership, even Indian Premier League viewership, is not growing. It has either reached a ceiling (IPL) or a floor (test cricket). Even limited-overs cricket (the Fifty50) game, the mainstay of the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI), is showing a worrying pattern.

On-ground presence is lower than previously. The BCCI is masking it by hosting matches mainly in smaller cities and towns, where the novelty may still be there.
As for television, a comparison between the India-West Indies limited-overs series of 2011 and 2013 would be telling. Both series were played in India. The first was played in the aftermath of India’s World Cup victory and showed a TRP of 3.4 (male/15-34/Sec A, B and C). By the 2013 series, the TRP number had fallen to 2.2. TRP figures for the just-concluded (October 2014) India-West Indies series were not immediately available.

It was always on the cards that once the Tendulkar-Dravid generation retired and India’s finest XI went back to the pavilion, the consistency of the Indian team’s performance as well as spectator interest would fall. In time, as the team rebuilds, as a new batting order is cemented, as compell-ing, next-generation heroes emerge, as credible victories and tournament successes result, the peaks of the early and mid-2000s could return.

Yet, it needs to be accepted there is currently a gap that has resulted from a relative — and the word relative is important — decline in cricket fandom. What, if anything, is filling this gap and what may fill this gap in the coming years? Will whatever is filling this gap happily and conveniently vacate all the space it has won as and when the Indian team goes back to superlative performances, presuming the golden decade from 2001-2011 can be revived? Will social changes, alternative entertainment magnets, new formats of sport and a transformation in consumer tastes not leave a lasting impact and not permanently slice some of cricket’s market share?

This is possibly true. Certainly, it is what promoters and club owners of the Indian Soccer League, for instance, are betting on. When spoken to, a senior executive of one of the new clubs said market research told them that in the large metropolitan centres, among upper middle class demographic groups, and particularly in the ages between 13 and 28, “the fascination with cricket had fallen sharply”.

In a sense, cricket interest and obsession has moved down the socio-economic ladder, just as it happened to hockey in the early 1980s, as cricket began to rise in consumer consciousness. In the upper-echelon market — as opposed to the mass market — cricket does seem to be acquiring more of a middle-aged profile. This changes seasonally, especially when the IPL is played. “However,” as the executive explained, “the IPL is a two-month phenomenon. The English Premier League lasts eight months.”

All these have to be taken with caveats. It is not as if wealthy, big-city youth are not watching cricket at all or have no interest in the game. It is just that they have more alternative attractions, and sports, than their counterparts 20 years ago. Neither does it mean that any one sport will rush in to fill the vacuum cricket is leaving in some geographies and demographic segments. That there is enormous interest in the EPL or the FIFA World Cup does not automatically mean the ISL will become a raging success. Standards are very different.

What it does indicate though is there is a fragmentation happening at the upper-end of the sports-entertainment market, one where cric-ket held absolute sway till even five or six years ago. There are many competitors for this market: international football on television (which ISL is trying to piggyback on), American basketball, Formula 1, even the upcoming inter-city International Premier Tennis League. Further there is non-sport entertainment, but that is another issue.
Cricket also suffers because having been a monopoly product for so long it has priced itself out for many potential sponsors.

The cost of entry is very high and inevitably companies, especially smaller companies without the national spread of a beverage or telecom giant, will seek alternatives that give them concentrated access to key consumers. That is how markets respond as societies evolve. That is when new products are developed and designed to meet a market need. The sports-entertainment market is no different. As such, cricket in India is headed for its first major challenge since the Prudential Cup victory of 1983.

 The writer can be contacted at malikashok@gmail.com