Sena’s gamble was not worth the risk

It took just over a month for the Shiv Sena to cave in. The junior Hindu Right partner threw a tantrum in Maharashtra, where it has its base. Perhaps it could not afford not to after perpetuating the narrative that it had been given short shrift by the BJP, the senior saffron formation, after the reversal of their fortunes in the western state. But the Sena had not pulled out its minister from the Modi government in Delhi. In the final analysis it clearly did not want to overturn the applecart. It is safe to say that the rapier thrusts and the high decibels emanating from Matoshri were only a negotiating strategy.

The regional entity was all too aware of its limitations and knelt before the national power. First things first, it had won only about half the seats that the BJP had in the Assembly election. Two, after 15 years in the wilderness its middle-level and senior leaders were craving for power. More, the risk of Sena leaders crossing the aisle to the BJP side was not imaginary. Besides, if Uddhav Thackeray didn’t restore ruptured ties with the BJP, there might be a risk of losing the Mumbai Municipal Corporation.

It is not certain, however, if the Sena rank and file think the same way as the leaders. Reports suggest that when the party’s ministers were being sworn into Devendra Fadnavis’ council of ministers on Friday after Mr Thackeray swallowed his pride and didn’t insist on earlier preconditions, such as getting the home portfolio, not many foot-soldiers showed up although something like 10,000 passes had been issued.

It will now be interesting to see what Mr Thackeray does to retain the loyalty of his core supporters. Some could just melt away and some others join Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, though the latter might be a reduced possibility for the MNS has lately lost its sheen. There is a third possibility too — of Sena backers becoming Modi backers and BJP acolytes. This may depend on how the BJP’s stock fares at the Centre.

It is not every day that the principal Opposition party in the Assembly joins the Treasury benches. The Congress and the NCP would now be wrangling for the post of Leader of the Opposition. The BJP will be relieved as it doesn’t have to rely on the opportunistic support of the NCP. With NCP dependence out of the way after the Sena’s return to the fold, the BJP-led government may want to earn some points with the public by turning the focus on corruption of erstwhile NCP ministers. But will it be stable after the Sena’s entry? It may be premature to take that call.