What’s the real Opposition?

The term “shifting the goalpost” has come to be overused in polemical exchanges. Unfortunately, I cannot think of a more appropriate expression to describe the convoluted explanations proffered by a clutch of political pundits — more or less the same ones who, till the morning of May 16, 2014, were unaware that Indian voters had been moved by the Narendra Modi “wave” — that the results of the Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections exposed the waning appeal of the Prime Minister.

In normal circumstances, the performance of a political party is judged with reference to the earlier exercise. Thus, the 2014 general election was measured against the outcome in 2009. Since there is enough empirical data to suggest that Indian voters are often inclined to vote differently for a parliamentary, state Assembly and local body elections, pundits agree that comparisons should be precise and not cut across — except to score polemical points in TV debates. It is a sad commentary on the growing partisanship of political analysts that in judging the Bharatiya Janata Party’s performance this principle has been diluted.

The practice of shifting goalposts was first noticed during the analysis of the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly poll outcomes last October. This week the exercise has continued with analysts confidently stating that the BJP had actually received a drubbing in Jharkhand because its finally tally of 42 seats was significantly lower than its lead in some 60 Assembly segments in the Lok Sabha poll. It was also stated that the BJP had underperformed in terms of what the opinion and exit polls had forecast. In short, the BJP had to bear the cross for the pollsters — organisations with highly uneven levels of competence — getting it all wrong!

The conclusion was extended to the J&K Assembly results when the BJP’s lofty “Mission 44” was made the yardstick. For those who flaunt their unequivocal commitment to a constitutionally encouraged “scientific temper”, this was a descent into the realms of voodoo. The BJP did spectacularly well in J&K with 25 seats and highest number of popular votes (a shade higher than Mufti Mohammed Sayeed’s People’s Democratic Party) in a fractured verdict. Yes, the party’s maiden attempt to secure representation in the Kashmir Valley failed miserably but this was more than compensated by its sweep in Jammu, including victories in constituencies that had a generous share of Muslim voters. In judging the BJP performance against the “Mission 44+” slogan, political pundits underplayed the colossal significance of the BJP shedding its “outsider” status and becoming a stakeholder in the internal dialogue of the state.

In more ways than is immediately apparent, the BJP has reinforced its image as the principal national party of India, overshadowing the Congress. Whether the decline of the Congress — it came fourth in both states — is in direct proportion to the ascent of the BJP will be a subject of interest in the coming years. The Modi-Amit Shah slogan of “Congress-free India” may well be a rhetorical flourish but if the Congress is perceived to be on an irreversible downward slide, it will alter the very nature of India’s political establishment that, for obvious reasons, tended to be partial towards the political assumptions of the Congress. This erosion of the Congress’ political base will, in turn, have a direct bearing on the BJP’s quality of governance. The more the Congress becomes an electoral lightweight, the less will be its ability to throw institutional spanners in the path of the Modi government. Unless the government’s own functionaries mess up matters, the Modi regime will be presented with a far more responsive and cooperative bureaucracy in the New Year.

There is, of course, a sense in which those who see the Assembly results as evidence of Mr Modi’s waning appeal, rather than the consolidation of the BJP, are half-right. It is always risky for any Prime Minister to risk his/her personal reputation on the outcome of an Assembly election where the concerns are different and where local issues assume paramount importance. In an earlier age Rajiv Gandhi often faltered in his attempt to transfer the weight of his unequivocal mandate in the Centre to the states. So far Mr Modi has been remarkably successful in transferring his personal goodwill to the state units of the BJP, but a measure of slippage is inevitable. The ability of the BJP to secure outright victories in Haryana and Jharkhand and to upstage the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra can be directly attributed to the Modi appeal. In Jammu there were other factors, notably the decline of the Congress and the anti-incumbency against the National Conference that operated.

As a rule, regional parties face a disadvantage in parliamentary elections as voters are more inclined to favour national parties that have a chance of forming a government. Of course, West Bengal, Orissa and Tamil Nadu are exceptions to the trend. In both Jharkhand and J&K, the BJP gained disproportionately from the decline of the Congress. However, as the performance of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha demonstrated, the real Opposition to the BJP in the next four years is likely to come from regional parties that are reasonably insulated from the politics of the Centre. This may be good news for the re-united Janata Parivar that, for all practical purposes, is a cluster of regional parties. If the Lalu Prasad Yadav-Nitish Kumar alliance succeeds in halting the advance of the BJP in Bihar next year, there is every possibility that a Lohiaite grouping, rather than the Congress, could assume the role of the real Opposition to the Modi government.

Just as it is inaccurate to talk of the recent round of Assembly elections being a downer for Mr Modi, it is facile to characterise today’s India as Opposition-free. The reality is that a demoralised and rudderless Congress has lost its way and the regional parties are too localised to mount an effective counter. For the moment the BJP and Mr Modi are dominant. Yet, how long this one-sided state of affairs will persist is entirely dependant on how well the BJP is able to assert itself in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and Assam. Indian politics is always 24x7 and it takes only a small bump for the process to change course.

The writer is a senior journalist