India’s external outlook in 2015

Beginning of a New Year is an apt time to appraise the nation’s performance in the management of its foreign policy and diplomacy as also to reflect on what may be in store in the coming months. The question is simple: should the people be content, confident or concerned?

The year gone by had two distinct phases. From January to late May, the United Progressive Alliance government was in charge, whereas from May 26, 2014 onwards, the Modi government ran the show. During the first phase, South Korea’s President Park Geun-hye and Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe were among the prominent visitors to India.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh travelled to Burma to participate in the much-delayed BIMSTEC Summit. Approaching elections slowed down happenings on the diplomatic calendar.

The outcome of the election — the winning of a clear majority by a national party in a generation, the rise of a strong leader and an effective communicator, and the added stress on inclusive development reflected in the mantra of “Sabka saath, sabka vikas” — created new conditions.

The Modi government placed a special focus on the South Asian neighbourhood, relations with major powers and East Asia, and India’s role in important multilateral institutions including the United Nations, G20, East Asia Summit and Brics. Through an astute planning of visits by our top political leaders and of incoming VVIP and VIPs, the South Block executed a diplomatic plan that took observers by surprise and won much kudos from the strategic community.

Criticism, however, did not disappear. Nor did issues which require resolution. Informed opinion agrees that Pakistan and China would continue to be our major challenges in 2015. Some of the sheen of Mr Modi’s imaginative initiative to invite South Asian leaders to the swearing-in ceremony was lost, once India-Pakistan relations entered a downward phase.

China represents a bigger challenge. Its true nature came into sharp relief by images of the colourful Gujarati welcome given to President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan in Ahmedabad and the tense border stand-off which accompanied the visit. On the very day the leaders sat down to craft a way out of the tricky situation and devise a vision for economic cooperation, the Chinese President remarked to a select audience assembled by the Indian Council of World Affairs: “...I propose that China and India should be closer development partners, growth-leading cooperation partners, and strategic global partners.”

On India-China relations, “hawks” and “doves” in both countries are busy advancing their theories and offering advice. A realistic perspective was, however, presented by vice-president Hamid Ansari during his visit to China in June. He made two significant points. First, for their economic development, both countries need “a peaceful periphery and an environment of tranquillity.” Second, they also need to address “the perception gap.”

The past seven months witnessed notable achievements such as Mr Modi’s highly successful visits to Nepal, Japan, the US, Burma and Australia. But there are other regions and relationships demanding sustained political attention.

West Asia needs to be cultivated, given India’s dependence on energy imports, need for foreign investment and presence of a large Indian diaspora. Much of the area remains under the sway of negativity, specially extremism and violence. Can India contribute to its security and stability even as she strives to protect her economic interests? Central Asia also craves for more meaningful cooperation which transcends soft power linkages. Hence a special push for connectivity projects appears essential.

Beyond the extended neighbourhood lie three other regions where the Modi government could pay greater attention — Europe, Africa and Latin America. EU economy is fragile; its members are inward looking; and their feud with Russia on Ukraine is bad news for all. Despite this, New Delhi has enough geopolitical and economic compulsions to plan a drive to reinvigorate this relationship.

There is today a sense of neglect in Africa even as competition sharpens for its goodwill, markets and resources. The ministry of external affairs would do well to announce soon the new dates for the third India-Africa Forum Summit. Further, it may be advisable to have one of our political VVIPs undertake a well-planned, extensive business safari across Africa.

Regarding Latin America, mandarins, when pressed for new initiatives, refer to the constraints of distance and inadequate resources. But these very considerations should impel us to plan the first ever India-Latin America Forum Summit, possibly in 2016. After all, Mr Modi’s worldview now stretches from Fortaleza to Fiji.

January will be the month of Pravasi Bharatiya Diwas and Vibrant Gujarat celebrations and of welcoming US President Barack Obama on a historic visit. When the dust settles down, the government could look at the dossiers that have apparently remained on the backburner so far.

The combination of “speed and resolve” in “external engagement”, mentioned judiciously by external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj, should be extended to them too. Moreover, periodic structured interactions between policymakers and non-governmental experts would be mutually beneficial.

Foreign policy successes will keep coming in the New Year if our economy begins to flourish and our national cohesion is strengthened. In this task, the government, the political class and the people have a role to play. Hence a fair answer to the question in the opening paragraph is: all of the above.

A former ambassador, the author is director-general of the Indian Council of World Affairs. Views expressed are personal.