Delhi voters will decide which Modi rules India

It does not require much political clairvoyance to sense that Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces the sternest electoral challenge since his amazing victory last May in the impending Assembly elections in the national capital. For Arvind Kejriwal, wannabe chief minister all over again, the contest is about political resurrection. With regard to the third force in the fray, the Congress Party, the challenge is to retain its political relevance. But, for Mr Modi, the verdict on February 10 will determine the nature of his premiership over the remaining period of his tenure. Most importantly, the result — whether he manages to swing it in his favour or not — will determine if he can continue being his own master or if he has to begin playing second fiddle to Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the one-time Big Brother who opted for the role of a twin these past months.

For Mr Kejriwal, and for numerous first-timers in politics, whether in the fray as a party’s candidates, social media activists or plain strategists, the day when the electronic voting machines (EVMs) will be tallied, will not be just about getting another shot at governance. The way the dice rolls on that day will determine if people endorse the alternate political value system that the Aam Aadmi Party claims to propagate.

The verdict will determine if the patron-client relationship between the vote seeker and the voter can be altered and if Indian politics can be freed from the increasing clutch of plutocracy. But, more importantly, the verdict of Delhi’s electorate will determine if the Bharatiya Janata Party, the “new predominant party” thrown up by the Lok Sabha polls, will be faced with a “new Opposition”.

Indeed, if the AAP performs creditably, there is likelihood of its emergence as a challenger in several other states. While Mr Modi’s victory in May 2014 saw the rise of the BJP as the “new Congress” in the country, his humbling in Delhi will witness the rise of a “new BJP” in the form of AAP.

Two months ago this analysis would not have begun on this premise. Instead, assessments of the election would have started by examining the verdict of November 2013 elections and calculation would have been regarding the extent to which the BJP could improve its performance.

Voters may still give the BJP a chance to form government, but the nervousness in the party is visible. For a man known to give decisive direction to any electoral campaign, Mr Modi was noticeably lacklustre in his speech last week in the capital’s Ram Lila Maidan. Unlike the elections campaigns that have made him famous — from the rabble-rousing run in 2002 in Gujarat to the mixed pitch in Jammu and Kashmir — Mr Modi always set the tone of the campaign. This time, however, he is yet to put the electoral agenda for Delhi on the table. In contrast, Mr Kejriwal has set the ball rolling with one charge after another against BJP leaders. Already, there is evidence of a vintage Kejriwal picking new holes in the BJP armoury every day and making fresh promises. In contrast, Mr Modi has boxed the BJP into a corner by not projecting a charismatic chief ministerial face and harping only on the negative attributes of Mr Kejriwal.

Unlike in Haryana or Maharashtra, the BJP in Delhi needed an electoral mascot. In these two states the BJP managed to win the polls purely on the strength of a proxy vote for Mr Modi because of the absence of a charismatic chief ministerial face in its main adversary. But in Mr Kejriwal, the BJP is faced with a charismatic leader. It also helps that Mr Kejriwal accepts his past mistakes and in India anyone who apologises and seeks to atone for this error gets the benefit of a pardon.

Mr Modi’s decision to equate the self-confessed anarchist with a Naxalite is a grossly wrong strategy.

The RSS is going to keenly watch the electoral conflict because the verdict will have a direct bearing on the extent of control it will have on Mr Modi. If Delhi goes the Maharashtra and Haryana way and hands a comfortable majority to the BJP, Mr Modi can be expected to retain his dominant position within the Sangh Parivar. But if the voters choose to either opt for the AAP or deliver another hung verdict, then the fangs will be out.

The so-called fringe element will move to centre-stage and the incidents and utterances that have been projected as aberrations will become official state policy. The fact that Mr Modi’s past does not reject such posturing will, of course, make this transition seamless for him in his bid for survival.

Though the BJP leaders have frowned in recent days on statements of the like of Sakshi Maharaj, it needs to be remembered that Mr Modi in 2002 had made the infamous statement: “We want to achieve progress by pursuing the policy of family planning with determination... Ame paanch, Amara pachhees! (We are five and we have 25!) …Can’t Gujarat implement family planning? Whose inhibitions are coming in our way? Which religious sect is coming in the way?”

In November 2013, AAP performed better than most expectations. At that point it was clear that only Mr Kejriwal and his brigade had the capacity to stop the Modi juggernaut. In weeks after the verdict, Mr Modi had been unsure of the strategy to be adopted against AAP. He chose to maintain silence and watched in glee as Mr Kejriwal, in an over-ambitious drive, committed political hara-kiri. The Indian voter has always reined in political leaders with a runaway majority. In the next 25 days or so, the Delhi voter will decide whether it is time to create a system of checks and balances for Mr Modi or give him a free run for some more time. The nature of Indian politics over the next couple of years will be determined to a great extent by this decision.

The writer is the author of Narendra Modi: The Man, the Times