Will the Rafale deal go through during Modi's France visit?

New Delhi: As Prime Minister Modi begins his official engagements this morning; his team was already at work, holding late night meetings on various deals that India and France are to conclude in the next two days.

All eyes are, of course, on the multi-million dollar Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) deal for which France's Dassault Rafale was selected in 2012, but which has run into massive hurdles ever since.

While Indian sources say that a forward movement can be expected in the three days that the Prime Minister is here, the French authorities are tightlipped on whether the deal has been clinched or not.

French media sites are quoting Indian newspapers and blogs which claim that a deal has been struck and would be announced during the Prime Minister's meeting with President Hollande.

This would seem a bit different from the past. Usually, major arms purchases are not announced during prime ministerial visits. The explanation given is that it puts too much pressure on the negotiating delegation. However India's civilian nuclear deal with the United States is a case in point where intense pressure on the negotiating teams resulted in a favourable outcome.

The current Indian Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar was part of Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh's team, locked for days together in a hotel room, negotiating with the George Bush team led by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

The Rafale deal with France has two sticking points, one is the price issue about USD 23 billion; and the second is the assembly of the aircraft in Bangalore. India wants Rafale to manufacture all 108 aircraft in Bangalore as per their 2012 offer.

India wants Dassault to take full responsibility for the production of 108 jets at a state-run facility in Bangalore, under the 2012 bid offer, but France is hesitant to give guarantee over production in a location in India.

The option is to scrap the entire deal and purchase the aircraft straight up, as many in the Air Force have been advocating and has been reported. Protracted negotiations have made the Air Force anxious.

IHS Jane's quotes a source, as saying that there is a "massive disconnect between the Ministry of Defence (MoD), the IAF, and the political community in India, who have to contend with larger diplomatic and industrial issues" on what the future IAF should look like. Either way, the government would not like the entire focus of the Prime Minister's visit to France to be centered on whether the Rafale deal will go through or not.

But given the fact that defence modernization is high on Prime Minister Modi's agenda, and among the very first meetings that he has today is with defence majors, it is quite natural that the Rafale deal has come into focus.