Monsoon advancing well but deficit rainfall likely

Hyderabad: As per the Indian Meteorological Department report released on Sunday, the conditions continue to be favourable for advancement of the Southwest Monsoon deeper into parts of the south and east-central Bay of Bengal and parts of Andaman Islands over the next 48 hours.

IMD has predicted that the Southwest Monsoon will reach Kerala on May 30 (plus or minus four days), and it should hit Telangana and AP between June 5 and June 9. However, there are causes for worry. As per the long-range forecast by the IMD, the sea surface temperatures continue to remain above normal over eastern Pacific Ocean, causing weak El Nino conditions.

As per a recently tabled reply by the ministry of earth sciences to a question raised in Rajya Sabha, there is a 70 per cent chance of El Nino conditions prevailing during SW Monsoon this year.

Between 1965-87, there were 10 deficient SW Monsoons and the rains were found to be linked with El Nino conditions. There were 28 El Nino years between 1901-2014, among which Telangana had more deficient rainfall years than Coastal AP or Rayalaseema regions. TS experienced rainfall deficit in 11 out of the 28 El Nino years, whereas Rayalaseema had 10 deficit rainfall years and Coastal AP had eight deficit rain years.

Another cause of worry is the forecast of 93 per cent of Long Period Model Average by the Earth System Science Organisation and IMD. The LPMA should be in the range of 96-104 per cent for rainfall to be normal.