Too many loose ends for a Janata tie-up

As they say, all politics are local in the end, and not necessarily subject to the higher order forces of ideology. This is turning out to be amply clear in the matter of the proposed merger of the parties of the Janata lineage, which has been talked about for months without too much apparent enthusiasm on any side.

The Bihar Assembly election, due in five months, has raised hopes in non-BJP parties. If Bihar CM Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) can combine with former CM Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD, the merged entity can be a formidable electoral machine, given the social forces it would represent. In case the Congress in Bihar can throw in its lot with this “social justice” grouping, the BJP may find itself in a tight corner.

It is generally thought that a defeat for the BJP in Bihar, after the stinging rebuke the party suffered at the hands of the Delhi electorate last February, is likely to puncture the saffron formation’s hopes nationally, and even personally damage Prime Minister Modi’s political fortunes. However, the way the merger moves between the JD(U) and RJD have progressed cannot raise optimism in the secular camp.

Mr Kumar insists that the RJD publicly announce that he would be CM if the game succeeds. Although he himself is debarred from contesting elections on account of involvement in criminal cases, RJD supremo Lalu Yadav would hear none of it. There is also tension between the two parties on the share of seats each would contest. Both want the upper hand in Bihar’s non-BJP space.

RJD and JD(U) are both “Janata-parivar” parties. If there are practical ground-level obstacles between them on account of local considerations, it is unlikely that the UP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav, whose Samajwadi Party also comes from the wider Janata political family, can be easily persuaded to merge the force he commands into a larger Janata-style whole.

The SP boss has shown neither hope nor enthusiasm all these months merger have been talked about. He is perhaps apprehensive that if such a coming together of parties of the former Lohia socialist ideology (who had in 1977 joined a section of the Congress and the then Jana Sangh — the BJP’s former avatar — to constitute the Janata which ran the government at the Centre in 1977-79) materialised, the present RJD and JD (U) leaders would begin to make political claims on his turf in Uttar Pradesh.

To complicate matters even in Bihar, JD(U) president Sharad Yadav has hinted that Mr Kumar need not be declared the Chief Minister candidate at this stage. There are just too many loose ends to tie up.