Hat trick for UDF in Aruvikkara by-election

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The Oommen Chandy ministry, battered by allegations of graft and sleaze, retained the Aruvikkara Assembly seat in a hat-trick by-election victory as its candidate, Mr K S Sabarinadhan, defeated his nearest rival, Mr M Vijayakumar (CPM), by a margin of 10,128 votes on Tuesday.  

A host of factors, including sympathy and candidate profile helped  Mr Sabarinadhan taste victory in debut electoral contest but Mr Oommen Chandy , who had called it a referendum on his Government and the performance of the Opposition, looked triumphant in his hour of glory.  

Mr Sabarinadhan, son of the late Speaker, Mr G Karthikeyan, built up his vote tally from the very first count at Tholicode panchayat around 8:30 am till his tally totalled 56,448 votes around 11 am.

There was a minor blip though when Mr Vijayakumar posted a hundred more votes in Aruvikkara.   

UDF supporters erupted in frenzied jubilation early on when the vote tally kept climbing and Mr Sabarinadhan showed no inclination to yield ground to his rivals.

He along with mother M T Sulekha and the rest of the family members sat glued to the TV set at Abhayam in Sasthamangalm , savouring the good news, barely three months after the untimely death of Mr Karthikeyan.  

The victory was the sweetest for skipper Oommen Chandy, who came to power on May 18, 2011, on a wafer thin four-MLA majority (72-68). When Mr Sabarinadhan is sworn in at the Assembly on Wednesday, the Chandy contingent goes up to 75 MLAs, including nominated Anglo-Indian member,  against 66 MLAs of the LDF in the 141-member House.  

The victory bucks what was billed as an inevitable anti-incumbency in the last year of the UDF term.  Mr Chandy ensured the first by-election win in Piravom and then Neyattinkara.  

But the big political story of the day was the surge of BJP whose candidate, Mr O Rajagopal, bagged 34,145 votes, recording a phenomenal increase of 26,451 votes compared to 2011 Assembly poll. With this stunning performance, the BJP has sent out a strong signal about its steadily increasing base in state’s bipolar politics.

Despite facing a series of serious corruption allegations in bar bribe and solar fraud case, the chief minister showed the nerves to declare right in the beginning that the by poll was a referendum on his Government’s performance. Therefore he can rightfully claim credit for the stupendous victory.

The sympathy wave generated by G Karthikeyan’s untimely death which necessitated the by-poll, had worked in UDF's favour.

Besides, the candidature of Mr Sabarinadhan, who quit his high salaried Tata job to enter the electoral fray, too succeeded in attracting the majority of the 19,000 new generation votes in the constituency.  

Mr Chandy’s direct connect with the voters through family meets proved more effective than the huge public gatherings addressed by Opposition Leader V S Achuthanandan.

The UDF had gone into the polls in extremely adverse circumstances; bar bribe case against Finance Minister K M Mani, CM former aide Salimraj’s arrest in land grab case, Solar girl Saritha’s conviction for fraud and damning disclosures of Vigilance SP, Mr R  Sukesan.

But at the end, the ruling front managed to overcome the odds to come up trumps. Through more than 100-odd family meetings, Mr Chandy could connect directly with people, especially women, and convincingly communicate government’s achievements like closure of bars, development and care agenda. His experience at marathon mass contact programmes stood him in good stead.

BJP show: The BJP succeeded in cutting into traditional Left votes in some panchayats besides splitting the anti-government sentiment.

Though Mr Rajgaopal had secured 30,000 plus votes in 2012 Neyyattinkara by-poll and 43,661 in Nemom in 2011 where the UDF had fielded a weak SJD candidate, this time around the BJP performance is considered significant in political circles as the party had succeeded in positioning itself as a credible opposition.

Setback for LDF:  On the other hand the LDF, which had an ideal electoral opportunity owing to serious corruption charges against ministers, failed to run an effective campaign.

Though the Left attributed high share of BJP votes to the split in anti-government sentiment, the fact was that it could not present itself as a credible alternative to the UDF. Differences within CPM also led to confusion all through the campaign.

Mr Achuthanandan brought huge crowds to LDF meetings but his offensive remarks against Mr A K Antony and Mr Chandy didn't go down well with electorate. The failure of CPM leadership to bring Mr Achuthanandan and Mr Pinarayi Vijayan on the same platform too sent a wrong message.

LDF’s anti-corruption agenda could not click because of its close association with ex-convict R Balakrishna Pillai, who remained in the forefront of election campaign. Fringe parties like Mr P C George’s Anti Corruption Democratic Front and PDP polled less than 1430 votes NOTA polled, leaving them minnows in the polls.