Sri Lankan verdict good for India

The verdict in the Sri Lanka parliamentary elections is very significant for geopolitics of the region. Short of gloating over the failure of Mr Mahinda Rajapaksa, whose comeback bid has been stanched by the rise of the UNP and its leader Ranil Wickremesinghe who will continue as PM, India knows it could not have wished for more. There is an opportunity in sight to consolidate relations with the neighbouring state; ties have been more than cordial since Mr Maithripala Sirisena won the presidential election in January and displaced Mr Rajapaksa.

The victorious UNP-led United National Front for Good Governance does not have an outright majority, but it is in a far better position now to cobble together a working majority with members of President Sirisena’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party certain to be willing to cross over. And then there is the Tamil National Alliance, with 16 seats, which can make a difference to its ties with the Sinhala-Buddhist mainstream. While it is highly unlikely that the Tamils will join the government, their support can help bring positive change. It is up to Northern Province CM Wigneswaran to move forward leaving his pre-poll call for a conscience vote behind.
President Sirisena had burnt his boats with Mr Rajapaksa in declaring, quite surprisingly, that he would not invite him to be Prime Minister even if his party were to get a clear majority. Mr Rajapaksa’s lesser performance at the polls means any embarrassing interregnum has been obviated and the road ahead is clear. It is up to Mr Rajapaksa now to play the role of a constructive Opposition or risk being haunted by corruption charges.

The Sirisena-Wickremesinghe duo has much to do if it is to find acceptance in international forums regarding wartime accountability. With the pro-West Wickremesinghe enjoying far more power now after the passing of the 19th Amendment last April with which the powers of the executive President were curtailed, he might personally be able to convince the world of his sincerity. India will be hoping that the two keep the island pegged to its swing away from Mr Rajapaksa’s dangerous game of playing up to China. It is all too vital for India to keep a neighbour with such a strategic location in the Indian Ocean within its sphere of influence.

The problem of Indian fishermen poaching in Sri Lankan waters spoiling ethnic Tamil sentiment has tapered off somewhat since the Sirisena accession. To imagine a quick deal on wholesome devolution of powers to the Tamils would be a pipe dream even in the more sanguine scenario of major democratic results in 2015. It would be in India’s interest, as well as that of Tamil Nadu, to seek a fair approach to the island Tamils rather than asking for the moon. The biggest hope is that the signs of good ties are far more positive now than ever before.