Year of an unpredictable Southwest monsoon

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The Southwest monsoon this year, which was mostly elusive, has adopted an uncharacteristic “roller coaster” pattern.

Though the southwest monsoon is highly unpredictable, it normally adopts what weather experts describe as a “dinosaur” pattern, a mountain-like high in the initial stages and then a tail-like gentle gradient.

“This year, the Southwest monsoon had three big highs that lasted for just a few days. The rest of the days were dull. The dull phases were too dominant that there has been more than a 30 per cent deficiency in rainfall in the state,” said Dr Kurien Joseph, a climatologist.

The monsoon began in a reluctant fashion this year; it was far below normal in the initial days.

The rains picked up by the end of the first week of June, and then during the week between June 21 and 27 there was a sustained burst of furious rainfall.

June 26 registered a record high of 70 mm rainfall, which was more than double the normal during the season. By the last week of June, and for more than a week in July, there was a prolonged lull.

The second high began on June 11. Daily showers touched a high of 65 mm on July 18 and then virtually dried up after July 27. At least a week went by without rainfall anywhere in the state.

The first week of August had normal rains, which too petered out by the middle of August. The next high came on September 6, the daily rainfall touching 40 mm.

The Met Department has predicted heavy rainfall for the next two days in various parts of the state.

The rains are most deficient in Wayanad and Pathanamthitta, both of which have recorded a 45 per cent deficit.

Most of the other districts, including Idukki, have a deficit of over 30 percent. Kottayam and Kannur are the only districts with less than 30 per cent deficit.