Promise or performance?

Electors in Bihar will determine not just who will govern the state for the next term but will also decide the extent of mortal and political authority that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is left with. Will voters in this crucial state give another term to Nitish Kumar? Or, will they enable Mr Modi to reverse the downward slide which began with the Bharatiya Janata Party’s rout in Delhi? It is inappropriate to hazard a guess, but there is no denying that the way the dice rolls will influence political futures of the dramatis personae. But more impor-tantly, the verdict will shape India’s politics and stalled reforms process over the next few years.

Three out of four most important leaders in the fray have a “regular job”. Lalu Prasad Yadav is the only one who doesn’t and will not get an office irrespective of the outcome. Of the other three, Mr Modi and his principal political aide, Amit Shah, will remain in office even if the BJP does not secure a majority. Conjectures have wafted around Lutyen’s Delhi for several months that another term as party president may elude Mr Shah if he is unable to deliver Bihar. But if Mr Shah is replaced anytime after December this year when his tenure ends, it would also signal significant erosion of Mr Modi’s clout within the Sangh Parivar. Given present equations within the saffron clan, a change of guard either in government or party is unlikely.

Mr Yadav remains most secure in the quartet. In the past few years his support base among Yadavs has eroded. But trends suggest he has succeeded in winning back those who drifted away and has retained fencesitters. Having already given a clarion call that the poll is not about jungle raj but about Mandal Raj-II, Mr Yadav has ensured that caste identity becomes the basis of political polarisation in the polls. The BJP faces a daunting task of ensuing that elections are fought on the slogan of development. Yet, juxtaposition with Mr Yadav’s slogan has resulted in upper caste polarisation in support of the BJP and allies, this may add momentum to the lower castes’ drift towards the Grand Alliance.

Mr Modi is handicapped because he is contesting the polls on an overt development platform. Caste is extremely important in elections, more so in Bihar. Beca-use the Prime Minister projects himself as a development messiah, he can play the caste card only covertly. In contrast, the Grand Alliance has Mr Kumar talking development while Mr Yadav unabashedly promising Mandal Raj Phase II. Such positioning gives the Grand Alliance a head start.

It wasn’t this way in the first few weeks of 2015, before Delhi Assembly elections. At that time Mr Modi was propelled by a sense of entitlement. The dream-run which began in 2012 when he won a third tenure as chief minister seemed never ending. The more Mr Modi exuded the sense that he was entitled to every victory, whispers grew stronger — that he was arrogant and gave short shrift to everyone. Till the verdict of the Delhi polls however, they remained a whisper. Now BJP leaders agree that the party cannot win every election and defeat too must be taken in their stride. Only bhakts of Mr Modi fail to see what the more rational supporters do.

The two biggest advantages that the has over the National Democratic Alliance in Assembly polls as compared to Lok Sabha polls is that, first, the anti-BJP vote will not be divided. In Lok Sabha, all of them (Rashtriya Janata Dal, Janata Dal (United), Janata Dal (Secular)) fought separately so the anti-BJP vote got divided. This will not happen now. Second, there will be near complete consolidation of the Muslim vote in favour of the alliance. Attempts to split the community by propping up Asaduddin Owaisi of All-India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen will cut no ice among them because fear of aggressive Hindutva has grown among Muslims in the past 16 months.

The NDA will hope to wean away a significant section of the extremely backward castes because of the presence of Jitan Ram Manjhi and Ram Vilas Paswan in its ranks. The support base of these two leaders personally cannot be doubted in their pockets of influence, but in an Assembly poll the extent to which this would be transferred to the BJP has to be seen. And how the BJP offsets fears of EBCs because its own base is dominated by upper castes and some higher OBCs has to be seen.

Moreover, Mr Kumar as Chief Minister has done smart rejig of the caste list and inducted new sub-castes into the OBC/EBC list and shifted some sub-caste from the OBC list to the EBC category. The EBCs are officially recognised as OBC-II and entitled to 17 per cent of the 27 per cent OBC share of jobs and seats.

But beyond the caste identity matrix is a larger question: What will the voters in Bihar opt for? Undoubtedly, they seek better governance and social security and not just by caste identity. Due to political compulsions, Mr Modi has not nominated a chief ministerial candidate. This worked in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand because the incumbent was discredited. In the case of Mr Kumar, his “sins” have been somewhat washed away by Mr Manjhi’s tenure. The Bihar Chief Minister will seek votes on the basis of performance while Mr Modi still waves a promissory note. Unfortunately, because the performance of the Union government has disillusioned people, fed up as they were with assurances of overnight delivery, Mr Modi’s un-dertaking to the people will be taken with a pinch of salt. This will just make his task a shade more difficult.

The writer is the author of Narendra Modi: The Man, the Times