Brace for very wet weather in Tamil Nadu
The possibility of a cyclonic storm brewing is also being closely monitored
Chennai: International numerical weather prediction models are closely monitoring two Low Pressure Areas (LPA) in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea that are expected to bring heavy rainfall to Tamil Nadu in the next few days.
Though experts differ on the intensity and overall impact of these systems, weathermen concur that it will trigger the much awaited North East Monsoons, the onset of which has been forecast by the Met department on Oct. 27-28.
Analysis of the data gathered from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS), the two most credible models providing real time data on weather across the globe, shows how these two LPAs will impact Tamil Nadu.
P. Gokul, an IT professional by day and a weather blogger the rest of the time, said that the area of disturbance is close to the Sri Lankan coast and adjourning South West Bay of Bengal.
This is expected to intensify into a Well Marked Low Pressure Area (WM L) and move up towards the TN Coast and trigger the onset of the 2015 NEM in the state and the rains will be heavy in the coastal areas and of moderate intensity in the interiors in the coming week and Chennai is expected to get widespread rains Oct. 28 to 31, Gokul and fellow weather enthusiasts Pradeep John and Selvan explained.
The possibility of a cyclonic storm brewing is also being closely monitored. Currently, the wind speeds are 15-20 knots and according to officials, even if a storm is formed, it’s landfall in TN coast will be minimised due to western disturbance over North India.
“Whenever this happens, it will modify the conditions making the Bay system to move along the East coast of India. The cyclonic storm would skirt along the TN coast and expected move in a northerly direction,” said Gokul.
Apart from this system in Bay of Bengal, another LPA lies in the South West Arabian Sea. It has the right set of conditions such as low wind shear, very warm Arabian waters etc. It is expected to intensify rapidly into a massive cyclonic storm and move away from Indian Coast. This system will indirectly help in increased rainfall activity in the interior areas of Tamil Nadu.