Victory and defeat in Bihar: What it means for all

New Delhi: The exit polls are out, yet the outcome of the Bihar polls remains an enigma. For Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, it’s a make or break situation. A defeat on Sunday will have a far more devastating impact on Mr Kumar than on the BJP for it has other elections to fight.

A loss for the grand alliance will not only weaken Mr Kumar politically but any possibility of him emerging as an anti-BJP force at the national level will take a severe drubbing. On home turf (Bihar), Mr Kumar will have to be like a phoenix to rise from the ashes. That will be a Herculean task if the Modi juggernaut crushes him in his own backyard.

With Mr Kumar, RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav too will rapidly rush towards his political sunset if the grand alliance loses the Bihar polls. The BJP’s claim that his powerful Muslim-Yadav combination is "merely a myth" will be prophetic. For the RJD, which is the main force in the grand alliance, the records and statistics are far from encouraging. The statistics, as reported, indicate that in its prime the RJD had an over 28 per cent share in the state. Over the years and successive elections, both Assembly and Lok Sabha, the RJD’s vote share dropped by nearly 20 per cent.

Also, in the last Lok Sabha polls the JD(U)’s vote share dropped from 23 per cent to 16 per cent. On the other hand, with Mr Modi leading the charge during the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP’s vote share had touched nearly 29 per cent. The calculation of the grand alliance was to consolidate the RJD-JD(U) vote bank to thwart the Modi charge.

If both Mr Lalu Yadav and Mr Nitish Kumar are sitting on the edge of their seats, the BJP appears to be a confident outfit. At least on the surface. Tents have been put up at BJP’s national headquarters at Ashok Road here. Party workers and journalists have been invited to breakfast and, of course, the saffron hoi polloi is ready with its stock of crackers and dhols.

Yet, behind this apparent bravado, there seems to be a simmering tension and a silent panic. "We are not showing any signs of weakness. But a defeat in Bihar will be a blow from which we just might not be able to recover," a senior saffron functionary said.

"If we lose Bihar, we will lose Uttar Pradesh," he feared. Besides these possible electoral debacles, what apparently is worrying the BJP is the probability of the Prime Minister’s image and charisma taking a permanent hit. The BJP made the Bihar elections a contest between a chief minister and a Prime Minister. This projection, some saffron functionaries felt, was a "dangerous gamble".

The BJP kicked off its electoral campaign with its development card. A promise to rid the state of "jungle raj". By the end of the first phase of the Assembly election, saffron strategists realised that voters were "not buying the jungle raj slogan".

Then the beef controversy gave the saffronites an opportunity to bring out their often used ammunition - the Hindu card. From senior party leader Sushil Modi to BJP president Amit Shah to Prime Minister Modi, they latched on to bovine politics to consolidate the Hindu vote bank, cutting across caste lines. This was intensified before the fifth phase in which the Muslim vote bank was expected to play a crucial role. Of the 57 seats in Seemanchal region, nearly 41 were Muslim-dominated.

Repeated communally-charged remarks by a  section of  saffron fringe elements, as well as some Modi ministers and parliamentarians, gave rise to the possibility of Muslims voting "en masse" in favour of the grand alliance.

A day ahead of the fifth phase, the BJP decided to milk the emotive cow protection issue to woo voters. An advertisement was put out in newspapers questioning Mr Nitish Kumar’s silence on the controversy over beef, with the tag line "Jawaab nahi, toh vote nahin (If there’s no reply, there will be no vote)."

This advertisement, incidentally, came days after the PM had spoken about the beef issue in his election rallies in the state. In Munger, he had hit out at the RJD chief, saying that he had insulted the Yadav community by "commenting on what they eat".

The Bihar elections, some say, not merely divided the pollsters but also society. A war of words and communally charged speeches marked the bitterly fought Bihar polls. If a defeat could possibly be the beginning of the end of Mr Kumar and Lalu Yadav, an electoral debacle in the state would force the BJP to rethink its strategy of banking on Mr Modi to win elections.

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